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Championship

Referee: J Busby

Millwall

S T U S S

2–1

Full-time

QPR

S T S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Millwall QPR

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

50%

67%

Points per game

1,8

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

2,3

3,5

Scored

1,5

1,7

Conceded

0,8

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,7

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 29/29 matches

Win Ø 31%

31%

Points per game

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

24%

41%

Both score Ø 49%

38%

59%

Average goals

1,9

2,4

Scored

1,0

1,1

Conceded

0,9

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,1

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

0,61 xG 0,79

43% Possession 57%

7 Shots 13

4 Shots on target 5

2 Blocked shots 5

4 Goalkeeper saves 2

2 Corners 11

2 Offside 0

10 Free kicks against 12

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Millwall 13. · QPR 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leeds	29	17	9	3	+34	+30.6	60
2	Burnley	29	15	12	2	+27	+6.8	57
3	Sunderland	27	15	9	3	+19	+8.9	54
4	Sheffield United	27	16	6	5	+17	+12.6	54
5	Blackburn	30	13	6	11	+5	-0.6	45
6	West Brom	30	10	14	6	+12	+6.6	44
7	Middlesbrough	29	12	8	9	+11	+15.3	44
8	Norwich	30	11	9	10	+7	+8.1	42
9	Bristol City	29	10	12	7	+4	+4.7	42
10	Watford	30	12	5	13	-2	-8.0	41
11	Sheffield Weds	29	11	8	10	-3	-5.4	41
12	QPR	29	9	11	9	-5	-4.3	38
13	Millwall	29	9	10	10	+2	+5.8	37
14	Coventry	28	10	7	11	+1	+16.9	37
15	Preston	30	8	13	9	-5	-0.8	37
16	Oxford	30	9	10	11	-10	-12.9	37
17	Swansea	29	9	7	13	-8	-0.8	34
18	Cardiff	29	7	10	12	-11	-8.7	31
19	Hull	29	7	8	14	-8	-4.8	29
20	Stoke	29	6	11	12	-10	-15.4	29
21	Portsmouth	29	7	8	14	-16	-14.9	29
22	Derby	29	7	6	16	-8	-6.6	27
23	Luton	29	7	5	17	-19	-3.4	26
24	Plymouth	30	5	10	15	-34	-29.5	25

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leeds	15	12	2	1	+28	+20.4	38
2	Sunderland	13	9	4	0	+14	+6.7	31
3	Sheffield United	13	9	2	2	+10	+12.4	29
4	Blackburn	16	9	2	5	+8	+4.0	29
5	Watford	15	9	2	4	+7	-1.7	29
6	Oxford	16	8	5	3	+4	-2.2	29
7	Norwich	14	7	5	2	+17	+11.5	26
8	Bristol City	13	7	5	1	+11	+7.4	26
9	Burnley	14	6	8	0	+11	+2.8	26
10	Middlesbrough	15	7	5	3	+7	+7.6	26
11	West Brom	14	6	7	1	+11	+6.0	25
12	Preston	15	6	7	2	+5	+3.7	25
13	Coventry	14	7	3	4	+8	+13.1	24
14	Portsmouth	14	6	4	4	+8	+1.8	22
15	Luton	15	6	4	5	+1	+4.1	22
16	Millwall	15	6	3	6	+3	+6.7	21
17	Sheffield Weds	15	5	6	4	+2	+1.1	21
18	Plymouth	15	5	6	4	-2	-6.7	21
19	Swansea	14	5	5	4	+5	+8.8	20
20	Derby	14	6	2	6	+5	+2.4	20
21	QPR	15	5	5	5	-1	+3.5	20
22	Cardiff	15	6	2	7	-1	-2.6	20
23	Stoke	15	4	7	4	+1	-4.5	19
24	Hull	15	2	6	7	-5	+1.2	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Burnley	15	9	4	2	+16	+3.9	31
2	Sheffield United	14	7	4	3	+7	+0.2	25
3	Sunderland	14	6	5	3	+5	+2.2	23
4	Leeds	14	5	7	2	+6	+10.2	22
5	Sheffield Weds	14	6	2	6	-5	-6.6	20
6	West Brom	16	4	7	5	+1	+0.6	19
7	Middlesbrough	14	5	3	6	+4	+7.7	18
8	QPR	14	4	6	4	-4	-7.8	18
9	Hull	14	5	2	7	-3	-6.0	17
10	Millwall	14	3	7	4	-1	-0.9	16
11	Blackburn	14	4	4	6	-3	-4.5	16
12	Bristol City	16	3	7	6	-7	-2.8	16
13	Norwich	16	4	4	8	-10	-3.4	16
14	Swansea	15	4	2	9	-13	-9.6	14
15	Coventry	14	3	4	7	-7	+3.8	13
16	Watford	15	3	3	9	-9	-6.3	12
17	Preston	15	2	6	7	-10	-4.5	12
18	Cardiff	14	1	8	5	-10	-6.1	11
19	Stoke	14	2	4	8	-11	-10.9	10
20	Oxford	14	1	5	8	-14	-10.7	8
21	Derby	15	1	4	10	-13	-9.0	7
22	Portsmouth	15	1	4	10	-24	-16.7	7
23	Luton	14	1	1	12	-20	-7.5	4
24	Plymouth	15	0	4	11	-32	-22.9	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.