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Ligue 1

Referee: B Bastien

Lille

S S U T S

2–1

Full-time

Monaco

S T T S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lille Monaco

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,7

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

67%

83%

Both score Ø 75%

83%

67%

Average goals

3,7

4,8

Scored

2,5

Conceded

1,2

2,3

Goal diff per game

+1,3

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 22/22 matches

Win Ø 50%

45%

55%

Points per game

1,7

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

68%

Both score Ø 64%

59%

68%

Average goals

2,6

3,3

Scored

1,6

2,0

Conceded

1,0

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,6

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

1,11 xG 2,34

43% Possession 57%

9 Shots 13

6 Shots on target 3

3 Blocked shots 5

2 Goalkeeper saves 4

1 Corners 6

1 Offside 2

11 Free kicks against 18

4 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Lille 5. · Monaco 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	22	17	5	0	+39	+37.5	56
2	Marseille	22	14	4	4	+24	+13.8	46
3	Nice	22	11	7	4	+17	+13.3	40
4	Monaco	22	12	4	6	+15	+23.1	40
5	Lille	22	10	8	4	+14	+9.9	38
6	Lyon	22	10	6	6	+13	+6.7	36
7	Strasbourg	22	9	6	7	+5	-4.9	33
8	Lens	22	9	6	7	+3	+7.0	33
9	Brest	22	10	2	10	-3	-9.6	32
10	Toulouse	22	7	6	9	-2	+6.8	27
11	Rennes	23	8	2	13	-2	+1.8	26
12	Angers	22	7	5	10	-8	-7.6	26
13	Auxerre	22	6	7	9	-6	-12.7	25
14	Reims	23	5	7	11	-9	-13.3	22
15	Nantes	22	4	9	9	-14	-11.8	21
16	St Etienne	22	5	3	14	-30	-28.2	18
17	Le Havre	22	5	2	15	-25	-15.1	17
18	Montpellier	22	4	3	15	-31	-16.7	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	11	9	2	0	+22	+19.8	29
2	Monaco	12	8	2	2	+13	+17.2	26
3	Nice	10	7	3	0	+16	+9.4	24
4	Rennes	13	7	1	5	+9	+5.2	22
5	Strasbourg	10	6	3	1	+8	+0.9	21
6	Lille	11	6	3	2	+7	+0.5	21
7	Lyon	10	6	2	2	+9	+6.9	20
8	Auxerre	11	5	5	1	+7	-0.6	20
9	Brest	11	6	2	3	+6	-0.7	20
10	Marseille	11	5	4	2	+7	+11.4	19
11	St Etienne	10	5	1	4	+0	-2.1	16
12	Toulouse	12	4	3	5	+0	+4.0	15
13	Lens	11	4	2	5	-2	+4.7	14
14	Montpellier	12	3	3	6	-13	-4.2	12
15	Angers	11	3	2	6	-7	-7.1	11
16	Nantes	10	2	4	4	-3	-1.3	10
17	Reims	12	2	4	6	-6	-5.0	10
18	Le Havre	11	2	0	9	-18	-10.4	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	11	8	3	0	+17	+17.7	27
2	Marseille	11	9	0	2	+17	+2.5	27
3	Lens	11	5	4	2	+5	+2.3	19
4	Lille	11	4	5	2	+7	+9.4	17
5	Lyon	12	4	4	4	+4	-0.3	16
6	Nice	12	4	4	4	+1	+3.9	16
7	Angers	11	4	3	4	-1	-0.5	15
8	Monaco	10	4	2	4	+2	+5.8	14
9	Toulouse	10	3	3	4	-2	+2.8	12
10	Strasbourg	12	3	3	6	-3	-5.7	12
11	Reims	11	3	3	5	-3	-8.3	12
12	Brest	11	4	0	7	-9	-8.9	12
13	Le Havre	11	3	2	6	-7	-4.7	11
14	Nantes	12	2	5	5	-11	-10.5	11
15	Auxerre	11	1	2	8	-13	-12.0	5
16	Rennes	10	1	1	8	-11	-3.4	4
17	Montpellier	10	1	0	9	-18	-12.4	3
18	St Etienne	12	0	2	10	-30	-26.0	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.