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La Liga

Referee: Mateo Busquets

Valencia

T S T S U

0–3

Full-time

Ath Madrid

S S S U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Valencia Ath Madrid

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,7

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

3,5

3,0

Scored

1,2

2,3

Conceded

2,3

0,7

Goal diff per game

-1,2

+1,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 24/24 matches

Win Ø 40%

21%

58%

Points per game

1,0

2,1

Over 2.5 Ø 40%

46%

33%

Both score Ø 52%

58%

46%

Average goals

2,6

2,3

Scored

1,0

1,6

Conceded

1,6

0,7

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

0,86 xG 1,28

49% Possession 51%

18 Shots 11

2 Shots on target 3

7 Blocked shots 4

0 Goalkeeper saves 2

7 Corners 0

0 Offside 2

18 Free kicks against 16

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Valencia 18. · Ath Madrid 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	24	16	3	5	+40	+29.2	51
2	Real Madrid	24	15	6	3	+29	+23.7	51
3	Ath Madrid	24	14	8	2	+23	+18.4	50
4	Ath Bilbao	24	12	9	3	+16	+14.5	45
5	Villarreal	25	12	8	5	+13	+15.6	44
6	Vallecano	25	9	8	8	+1	+0.5	35
7	Mallorca	24	10	4	10	-7	-1.3	34
8	Betis	24	8	8	8	-1	+4.3	32
9	Celta	25	9	5	11	-2	+7.2	32
10	Osasuna	25	7	11	7	-5	-7.5	32
11	Girona	24	9	4	11	-3	-0.2	31
12	Sociedad	24	9	4	11	-3	+1.8	31
13	Sevilla	24	8	7	9	-5	-3.9	31
14	Getafe	24	7	9	8	+2	-4.9	30
15	Espanol	25	7	6	12	-12	-20.0	27
16	Leganes	24	5	9	10	-13	-22.1	24
17	Las Palmas	24	6	5	13	-12	-22.1	23
18	Valencia	24	5	8	11	-13	-9.0	23
19	Alaves	25	5	7	13	-11	-1.6	22
20	Valladolid	24	4	3	17	-37	-22.6	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Ath Madrid	13	9	4	0	+16	+17.1	31
2	Real Madrid	11	9	1	1	+18	+17.2	28
3	Celta	13	8	2	3	+9	+6.1	26
4	Ath Bilbao	12	7	4	1	+12	+9.2	25
5	Barcelona	11	8	0	3	+20	+20.7	24
6	Osasuna	13	6	5	2	+5	+2.0	23
7	Espanol	13	6	4	3	+3	-4.8	22
8	Villarreal	12	5	5	2	+9	+8.3	20
9	Betis	12	5	5	2	+5	+11.7	20
10	Girona	12	6	1	5	+4	+7.2	19
11	Mallorca	13	5	4	4	-1	-2.1	19
12	Valencia	12	5	3	4	+4	+1.8	18
13	Vallecano	12	5	3	4	+1	+6.5	18
14	Sevilla	12	5	3	4	-3	+0.8	18
15	Sociedad	12	5	2	5	-1	+3.6	17
16	Getafe	12	3	7	2	+3	+3.0	16
17	Leganes	12	4	2	6	-7	-7.8	14
18	Las Palmas	12	3	4	5	-2	-5.6	13
19	Alaves	12	3	4	5	-3	+1.6	13
20	Valladolid	12	3	3	6	-12	-8.0	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	13	8	3	2	+20	+8.6	27
2	Villarreal	13	7	3	3	+4	+7.3	24
3	Real Madrid	13	6	5	2	+11	+6.5	23
4	Ath Bilbao	12	5	5	2	+4	+5.3	20
5	Ath Madrid	11	5	4	2	+7	+1.2	19
6	Vallecano	13	4	5	4	+0	-6.0	17
7	Mallorca	11	5	0	6	-6	+0.8	15
8	Getafe	12	4	2	6	-1	-7.9	14
9	Sociedad	12	4	2	6	-2	-1.8	14
10	Sevilla	12	3	4	5	-2	-4.8	13
11	Betis	12	3	3	6	-6	-7.4	12
12	Girona	12	3	3	6	-7	-7.4	12
13	Leganes	12	1	7	4	-6	-14.3	10
14	Las Palmas	12	3	1	8	-10	-16.5	10
15	Alaves	13	2	3	8	-8	-3.2	9
16	Osasuna	12	1	6	5	-10	-9.4	9
17	Celta	12	1	3	8	-11	+1.2	6
18	Espanol	12	1	2	9	-15	-15.2	5
19	Valencia	12	0	5	7	-17	-10.8	5
20	Valladolid	12	1	0	11	-25	-14.6	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.