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Serie A

Referee: M Piccinini

Inter

S U T S T

1–0

Full-time

Genoa

T S T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Inter Genoa

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,7

2,3

Scored

1,7

1,3

Conceded

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 25/25 matches

Win Ø 46%

64%

28%

Points per game

2,2

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 52%

64%

40%

Both score Ø 46%

48%

44%

Average goals

3,3

2,3

Scored

2,3

1,0

Conceded

1,0

1,3

Goal diff per game

+1,4

-0,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,52 xG 1,11

62% Possession 38%

18 Shots 11

5 Shots on target 2

8 Blocked shots 5

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

6 Corners 7

2 Offside 0

7 Free kicks against 14

0 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Inter 2. · Genoa 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	25	17	5	3	+22	+14.7	56
2	Inter	25	16	6	3	+34	+26.5	54
3	Atalanta	25	15	6	4	+28	+19.1	51
4	Lazio	26	14	5	7	+13	+12.3	47
5	Juventus	25	11	13	1	+21	+11.6	46
6	Fiorentina	25	12	6	7	+14	+5.8	42
7	Milan	25	11	8	6	+11	+17.5	41
8	Bologna	25	10	11	4	+7	+7.4	41
9	Roma	25	10	7	8	+7	+5.8	37
10	Udinese	26	10	6	10	-4	-9.6	36
11	Torino	26	7	10	9	-3	-12.3	31
12	Genoa	25	7	9	9	-9	-5.2	30
13	Como	25	6	7	12	-10	+1.5	25
14	Cagliari	25	6	7	12	-13	-7.5	25
15	Lecce	26	6	7	13	-24	-16.7	25
16	Parma	26	5	8	13	-13	-14.0	23
17	Verona	25	7	2	16	-28	-14.4	23
18	Empoli	25	4	9	12	-16	-12.6	21
19	Venezia	26	3	8	15	-19	-16.2	17
20	Monza	25	2	8	15	-18	-13.5	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	12	9	1	2	+10	+12.5	28
2	Inter	12	8	3	1	+14	+11.2	27
3	Juventus	13	6	7	0	+12	+9.1	25
4	Lazio	13	7	4	2	+8	+9.0	25
5	Atalanta	12	7	3	2	+13	+10.7	24
6	Milan	13	6	6	1	+11	+11.7	24
7	Fiorentina	13	7	3	3	+7	+7.0	24
8	Bologna	12	6	5	1	+9	+10.2	23
9	Roma	12	7	1	4	+12	+7.1	22
10	Udinese	13	6	2	5	+1	-5.0	20
11	Torino	13	4	5	4	+0	-6.1	17
12	Como	12	4	3	5	-1	+2.7	15
13	Genoa	13	3	6	4	-2	-0.9	15
14	Parma	14	4	3	7	-3	-3.3	15
15	Cagliari	13	4	3	6	-7	-0.6	15
16	Lecce	13	3	5	5	-13	-4.0	14
17	Venezia	13	3	4	6	-3	-1.7	13
18	Verona	12	3	1	8	-19	-4.9	10
19	Empoli	12	1	5	6	-9	-4.2	8
20	Monza	13	1	4	8	-7	-4.7	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	13	8	4	1	+12	+2.2	28
2	Inter	13	8	3	2	+20	+15.2	27
3	Atalanta	13	8	3	2	+15	+8.4	27
4	Lazio	13	7	1	5	+5	+3.3	22
5	Juventus	12	5	6	1	+9	+2.5	21
6	Fiorentina	12	5	3	4	+7	-1.1	18
7	Bologna	13	4	6	3	-2	-2.8	18
8	Milan	12	5	2	5	+0	+5.9	17
9	Udinese	13	4	4	5	-5	-4.6	16
10	Roma	13	3	6	4	-5	-1.3	15
11	Genoa	12	4	3	5	-7	-4.3	15
12	Torino	13	3	5	5	-3	-6.2	14
13	Empoli	13	3	4	6	-7	-8.4	13
14	Verona	13	4	1	8	-9	-9.5	13
15	Lecce	13	3	2	8	-11	-12.7	11
16	Cagliari	12	2	4	6	-6	-7.0	10
17	Como	13	2	4	7	-9	-1.1	10
18	Parma	12	1	5	6	-10	-10.7	8
19	Monza	12	1	4	7	-11	-8.7	7
20	Venezia	13	0	4	9	-16	-14.5	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.