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Championship

Referee: T Robinson

Millwall

T S S T S

1–1

Full-time

Derby

U U U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Millwall Derby

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

67%

Points per game

2,0

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

1,8

2,0

Scored

1,0

0,8

Conceded

0,8

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-0,3

This season — Championship · 16/17 matches

Win Ø 28%

38%

18%

Points per game

1,5

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

31%

35%

Both score Ø 58%

63%

53%

Average goals

2,0

1,8

Scored

1,0

0,8

Conceded

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

47% Possession 53%

14 Shots 13

3 Shots on target 5

2 Blocked shots 5

4 Goalkeeper saves 2

5 Corners 3

4 Offside 0

11 Free kicks against 7

2 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Millwall 12. · Derby 19. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Fulham	17	12	2	3	+30	38
2	Bournemouth	17	11	5	1	+17	38
3	West Brom	17	10	4	3	+13	34
4	Coventry	17	9	3	5	+6	30
5	Luton	16	7	5	4	+8	26
6	Swansea	17	7	5	5	+5	26
7	Huddersfield	15	7	4	4	+4	25
8	QPR	17	7	4	6	+3	25
9	Stoke	16	7	4	5	+2	25
10	Middlesbrough	17	7	3	7	+2	24
11	Preston	17	6	6	5	+0	24
12	Millwall	16	6	6	4	+0	24
13	Blackpool	16	7	3	6	-1	24
14	Blackburn	16	6	5	5	+0	23
15	Birmingham	17	6	4	7	-3	22
16	Reading	17	7	1	9	-5	22
17	Bristol City	17	6	4	7	-6	22
18	Sheffield United	16	6	3	7	+2	21
19	Derby	17	3	8	6	-4	17
20	Nott'm Forest	14	4	3	7	-4	15
21	Peterborough	16	4	3	9	-14	15
22	Peterboro	17	4	3	10	-15	15
23	Cardiff	17	3	4	10	-15	13
24	Barnsley	16	2	5	9	-11	11
25	Hull	17	2	3	12	-14	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Coventry	9	7	1	1	+13	22
2	West Brom	8	6	2	0	+11	20
3	Fulham	8	6	1	1	+14	19
4	Swansea	9	5	3	1	+9	18
5	Preston	9	5	3	1	+4	18
6	Luton	8	5	2	1	+9	17
7	Bournemouth	8	5	2	1	+8	17
8	Stoke	8	5	2	1	+5	17
9	Middlesbrough	9	5	1	3	+5	16
10	Huddersfield	7	5	1	1	+5	16
11	Reading	9	5	1	3	+3	16
12	QPR	8	4	3	1	+5	15
13	Blackburn	8	4	2	2	+1	14
14	Millwall	8	4	2	2	+1	14
15	Sheffield United	9	4	1	4	+6	13
16	Peterborough	8	3	3	2	+3	12
17	Peterboro	9	3	3	3	+2	12
18	Blackpool	8	4	0	4	-2	12
19	Derby	8	2	5	1	+1	11
20	Birmingham	8	3	2	3	-2	11
21	Barnsley	8	2	2	4	-3	8
22	Bristol City	8	1	4	3	-3	7
23	Hull	9	1	2	6	-7	5
24	Nott'm Forest	7	1	1	5	-8	4
25	Cardiff	8	1	1	6	-8	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bournemouth	9	6	3	0	+9	21
2	Fulham	9	6	1	2	+16	19
3	Bristol City	9	5	0	4	-3	15
4	West Brom	9	4	2	3	+2	14
5	Blackpool	8	3	3	2	+1	12
6	Nott'm Forest	7	3	2	2	+4	11
7	Birmingham	9	3	2	4	-1	11
8	Millwall	8	2	4	2	-1	10
9	QPR	9	3	1	5	-2	10
10	Luton	8	2	3	3	-1	9
11	Huddersfield	8	2	3	3	-1	9
12	Blackburn	8	2	3	3	-1	9
13	Cardiff	9	2	3	4	-7	9
14	Stoke	8	2	2	4	-3	8
15	Middlesbrough	8	2	2	4	-3	8
16	Swansea	8	2	2	4	-4	8
17	Sheffield United	7	2	2	3	-4	8
18	Coventry	8	2	2	4	-7	8
19	Preston	8	1	3	4	-4	6
20	Derby	9	1	3	5	-5	6
21	Reading	8	2	0	6	-8	6
22	Hull	8	1	1	6	-7	4
23	Barnsley	8	0	3	5	-8	3
24	Peterboro	8	1	0	7	-17	3
25	Peterborough	8	1	0	7	-17	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.