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Championship

Referee: J Bell

Norwich

S U S U U

3–3

Full-time

Middlesbrough

S S T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Norwich Middlesbrough

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

2,0

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

67%

17%

Both score Ø 50%

83%

17%

Average goals

3,7

1,7

Scored

2,5

0,8

Conceded

1,2

0,8

Goal diff per game

+1,3

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 11/11 matches

Win Ø 41%

36%

45%

Points per game

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 32%

45%

18%

Both score Ø 46%

64%

27%

Average goals

2,9

1,8

Scored

1,7

1,0

Conceded

1,2

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–3

1,10 xG 3,86

50% Possession 50%

9 Shots 14

3 Shots on target 8

1 Blocked shots 4

5 Goalkeeper saves 1

3 Corners 2

2 Offside 1

15 Free kicks against 7

2 Yellow cards 3

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Norwich 8. · Middlesbrough 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sunderland	12	9	1	2	+14	+3.4	28
2	Sheffield United	12	7	3	2	+8	+3.5	24
3	Burnley	12	6	5	1	+12	+2.6	23
4	Leeds	12	6	5	1	+11	+11.9	23
5	West Brom	12	5	5	2	+6	+6.0	20
6	Blackburn	12	5	4	3	+4	-0.6	19
7	Watford	12	6	1	5	-3	-5.0	19
8	Norwich	11	4	5	2	+6	+5.0	17
9	Middlesbrough	11	5	2	4	+2	+10.6	17
10	Millwall	12	4	4	4	+3	+6.5	16
11	Bristol City	12	3	7	2	-2	-0.0	16
12	Derby	12	4	3	5	+0	-2.4	15
13	Sheffield Weds	12	4	3	5	-5	-1.9	15
14	Oxford	12	3	5	4	+0	-4.2	14
15	Hull	12	3	5	4	-2	-2.5	14
16	Preston	12	3	5	4	-4	-2.0	14
17	Swansea	12	3	4	5	+0	-0.8	13
18	Coventry	12	3	3	6	-3	+3.0	12
19	Stoke	12	3	3	6	-4	-6.0	12
20	Cardiff	12	3	3	6	-7	-3.2	12
21	Plymouth	12	3	3	6	-9	-12.1	12
22	Luton	12	3	2	7	-6	+1.2	11
23	QPR	12	1	6	5	-8	-3.9	9
24	Portsmouth	12	1	5	6	-13	-9.3	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sunderland	6	5	1	0	+10	+2.5	16
2	Blackburn	6	5	1	0	+9	+2.6	16
3	Watford	6	5	1	0	+7	+2.0	16
4	Sheffield United	6	5	1	0	+7	+5.8	16
5	Leeds	6	4	1	1	+7	+7.1	13
6	Derby	6	4	1	1	+6	+0.7	13
7	Burnley	6	3	3	0	+7	+2.0	12
8	Oxford	6	3	3	0	+5	-0.7	12
9	Plymouth	6	3	2	1	+3	-0.6	11
10	Preston	6	3	2	1	+3	+2.0	11
11	Middlesbrough	6	3	2	1	+2	+9.1	11
12	Millwall	6	3	1	2	+4	+7.3	10
13	Bristol City	6	2	4	0	+2	-0.4	10
14	Norwich	5	2	3	0	+7	+5.5	9
15	Swansea	6	2	3	1	+3	+3.9	9
16	Coventry	6	3	0	3	+2	+5.0	9
17	Cardiff	6	3	0	3	+2	-0.5	9
18	West Brom	6	2	3	1	+1	+4.8	9
19	Stoke	6	2	2	2	+3	-0.8	8
20	Sheffield Weds	6	2	2	2	+1	+2.9	8
21	Luton	6	2	1	3	-1	+3.2	7
22	Hull	6	1	3	2	+0	+0.9	6
23	QPR	6	0	3	3	-5	+0.5	3
24	Portsmouth	6	0	3	3	-6	-3.0	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sunderland	6	4	0	2	+4	+0.9	12
2	West Brom	6	3	2	1	+5	+1.2	11
3	Burnley	6	3	2	1	+5	+0.6	11
4	Leeds	6	2	4	0	+4	+4.8	10
5	Sheffield United	6	2	2	2	+1	-2.3	8
6	Norwich	6	2	2	2	-1	-0.5	8
7	Hull	6	2	2	2	-2	-3.4	8
8	Sheffield Weds	6	2	1	3	-6	-4.8	7
9	Middlesbrough	5	2	0	3	+0	+1.6	6
10	Millwall	6	1	3	2	-1	-0.8	6
11	QPR	6	1	3	2	-3	-4.4	6
12	Bristol City	6	1	3	2	-4	+0.4	6
13	Portsmouth	6	1	2	3	-7	-6.2	5
14	Swansea	6	1	1	4	-3	-4.7	4
15	Luton	6	1	1	4	-5	-2.0	4
16	Stoke	6	1	1	4	-7	-5.1	4
17	Blackburn	6	0	3	3	-5	-3.3	3
18	Coventry	6	0	3	3	-5	-2.0	3
19	Preston	6	0	3	3	-7	-4.0	3
20	Cardiff	6	0	3	3	-9	-2.7	3
21	Watford	6	1	0	5	-10	-7.0	3
22	Oxford	6	0	2	4	-5	-3.5	2
23	Derby	6	0	2	4	-6	-3.0	2
24	Plymouth	6	0	1	5	-12	-11.4	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.