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Ekstraklasa

Referee: D Sylwestrzak

Jagiellonia

S S S U S

1–2

Full-time

Lech Poznan

S S T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Jagiellonia Lech Poznan

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

67%

50%

Points per game

2,3

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

3,5

2,2

Scored

2,3

1,2

Conceded

1,2

1,0

Goal diff per game

+1,2

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ekstraklasa · 20/20 matches

Win Ø 55%

60%

50%

Points per game

2,1

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 68%

85%

50%

Both score Ø 65%

70%

60%

Average goals

3,8

3,0

Scored

2,4

1,7

Conceded

1,4

1,3

Goal diff per game

+1,0

+0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

2,33 xG 0,94

67% Possession 33%

25 Shots 6

5 Shots on target 3

6 Blocked shots 3

1 Goalkeeper saves 4

6 Corners 2

3 Offside 2

19 Free kicks against 15

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Jagiellonia 1. · Lech Poznan 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Jagiellonia	20	12	5	3	+20	+7.4	41
2	Slask Wroclaw	21	12	5	4	+14	+3.8	41
3	Pogon Szczecin	21	11	3	7	+16	+11.8	36
4	Lech Poznan	20	10	6	4	+9	-1.7	36
5	Legia	20	10	5	5	+7	+7.4	35
6	Rakow	19	9	5	5	+12	+13.6	32
7	Gornik Zabrze	20	8	5	7	+3	-2.1	29
8	Stal Mielec	20	8	4	8	-2	-7.2	28
9	Zaglebie	20	7	4	9	-11	+3.0	25
10	Piast Gliwice	19	4	12	3	+2	+10.7	24
11	Cracovia	20	5	9	6	+0	-2.9	24
12	Radomiak Radom	21	6	6	9	-9	-1.5	24
13	Warta Poznan	21	5	8	8	-5	-7.3	23
14	Widzew Lodz	20	6	4	10	-7	-3.5	22
15	Korona Kielce	19	4	9	6	-1	-3.5	21
16	Puszcza	19	5	5	9	-11	-11.7	20
17	Ruch Chorzow	21	1	11	9	-13	-7.1	14
18	LKS Lodz	19	2	4	13	-24	-9.3	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Jagiellonia	9	8	1	0	+19	+7.7	25
2	Rakow	10	7	3	0	+17	+11.0	24
3	Lech Poznan	11	7	2	2	+12	+0.7	23
4	Legia	10	6	2	2	+9	+7.6	20
5	Slask Wroclaw	11	5	3	3	+6	+5.9	18
6	Stal Mielec	9	5	2	2	+6	-0.2	17
7	Gornik Zabrze	9	5	2	2	+3	-1.8	17
8	Puszcza	10	4	4	2	+0	-3.4	16
9	Zaglebie	10	4	3	3	-1	+2.7	15
10	Widzew Lodz	10	5	0	5	-3	+3.7	15
11	Pogon Szczecin	10	4	2	4	+3	+11.8	14
12	Cracovia	11	3	5	3	+2	+0.4	14
13	Korona Kielce	9	3	4	2	+3	+4.7	13
14	Piast Gliwice	9	3	4	2	+2	+7.9	13
15	Radomiak Radom	11	2	5	4	-3	-0.1	11
16	LKS Lodz	10	2	4	4	-9	-7.5	10
17	Warta Poznan	10	2	3	5	-4	-3.2	9
18	Ruch Chorzow	11	1	6	4	-5	-1.4	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Slask Wroclaw	10	7	2	1	+8	-2.1	23
2	Pogon Szczecin	11	7	1	3	+13	+0.0	22
3	Jagiellonia	11	4	4	3	+1	-0.3	16
4	Legia	10	4	3	3	-2	-0.2	15
5	Warta Poznan	11	3	5	3	-1	-4.1	14
6	Lech Poznan	9	3	4	2	-3	-2.5	13
7	Radomiak Radom	10	4	1	5	-6	-1.4	13
8	Gornik Zabrze	11	3	3	5	+0	-0.3	12
9	Piast Gliwice	10	1	8	1	+0	+2.8	11
10	Stal Mielec	11	3	2	6	-8	-7.0	11
11	Cracovia	9	2	4	3	-2	-3.4	10
12	Zaglebie	10	3	1	6	-10	+0.4	10
13	Korona Kielce	10	1	5	4	-4	-8.2	8
14	Rakow	9	2	2	5	-5	+2.6	8
15	Widzew Lodz	10	1	4	5	-4	-7.3	7
16	Ruch Chorzow	10	0	5	5	-8	-5.6	5
17	Puszcza	9	1	1	7	-11	-8.3	4
18	LKS Lodz	9	0	0	9	-15	-1.7	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.