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Bundesliga

Referee: H Osmers

Heidenheim

U U U U S

1–2

Full-time

Leverkusen

S U S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Heidenheim Leverkusen

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 58%

33%

83%

Points per game

1,7

2,7

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 58%

83%

33%

Average goals

2,3

2,7

Scored

1,3

2,0

Conceded

1,0

0,7

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+1,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 21/21 matches

Win Ø 57%

33%

81%

Points per game

1,3

2,6

Over 2.5 Ø 64%

52%

76%

Both score Ø 58%

67%

48%

Average goals

3,1

3,3

Scored

1,4

2,6

Conceded

1,7

0,7

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+2,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

0,43 xG 1,88

38% Possession 62%

6 Shots 17

3 Shots on target 4

1 Blocked shots 7

1 Goalkeeper saves 2

4 Corners 5

0 Offside 1

15 Free kicks against 5

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Heidenheim 10. · Leverkusen 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leverkusen	21	17	4	0	+41	+24.6	55
2	Bayern Munich	21	16	2	3	+37	+38.6	50
3	Stuttgart	21	14	1	6	+22	+24.2	43
4	Dortmund	21	11	7	3	+17	+9.2	40
5	RB Leipzig	21	11	4	6	+18	+15.4	37
6	Ein Frankfurt	21	8	8	5	+6	-3.4	32
7	Werder Bremen	22	8	5	9	-3	-6.8	29
8	Freiburg	21	8	4	9	-11	-1.3	28
9	Hoffenheim	21	7	6	8	-2	-0.9	27
10	Heidenheim	21	7	6	8	-6	-17.6	27
11	Augsburg	21	5	8	8	-8	-5.1	23
12	Wolfsburg	21	6	5	10	-8	-3.2	23
13	M'gladbach	21	5	7	9	-5	-6.0	22
14	Bochum	21	4	10	7	-16	-12.3	22
15	Union Berlin	21	6	3	12	-15	-8.0	21
16	FC Koln	22	3	7	12	-21	-22.4	16
17	Mainz	21	1	9	11	-19	-2.0	12
18	Darmstadt	21	2	6	13	-27	-22.8	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leverkusen	11	9	2	0	+26	+20.1	29
2	Bayern Munich	11	9	1	1	+30	+24.5	28
3	Stuttgart	11	9	1	1	+24	+20.7	28
4	RB Leipzig	11	7	2	2	+18	+13.2	23
5	Dortmund	11	7	2	2	+7	+8.5	23
6	Ein Frankfurt	10	5	4	1	+8	+3.4	19
7	Heidenheim	10	5	3	2	+3	-3.9	18
8	Freiburg	10	5	3	2	+3	+7.2	18
9	Werder Bremen	11	5	2	4	+2	+0.5	17
10	Union Berlin	10	5	1	4	-2	-0.7	16
11	Bochum	10	3	6	1	+4	+4.5	15
12	Wolfsburg	10	4	3	3	+3	-1.4	15
13	M'gladbach	11	4	3	4	+2	+2.6	15
14	Augsburg	11	3	5	3	+0	-1.3	14
15	Hoffenheim	10	2	4	4	-2	+4.4	10
16	FC Koln	11	2	3	6	-7	-8.6	9
17	Mainz	10	1	3	6	-8	+2.3	6
18	Darmstadt	11	1	3	7	-11	-5.9	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leverkusen	10	8	2	0	+15	+4.4	26
2	Bayern Munich	10	7	1	2	+7	+14.1	22
3	Dortmund	10	4	5	1	+10	+0.7	17
4	Hoffenheim	11	5	2	4	+0	-5.4	17
5	Stuttgart	10	5	0	5	-2	+3.5	15
6	RB Leipzig	10	4	2	4	+0	+2.2	14
7	Ein Frankfurt	11	3	4	4	-2	-6.8	13
8	Werder Bremen	11	3	3	5	-5	-7.4	12
9	Freiburg	11	3	1	7	-14	-8.5	10
10	Augsburg	10	2	3	5	-8	-3.9	9
11	Heidenheim	11	2	3	6	-9	-13.7	9
12	Wolfsburg	11	2	2	7	-11	-1.8	8
13	M'gladbach	10	1	4	5	-7	-8.5	7
14	FC Koln	11	1	4	6	-14	-13.8	7
15	Bochum	11	1	4	6	-20	-16.8	7
16	Mainz	11	0	6	5	-11	-4.4	6
17	Darmstadt	10	1	3	6	-16	-16.9	6
18	Union Berlin	11	1	2	8	-13	-7.3	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.