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Ekstraklasa

Referee: K Jakubik

Jagiellonia

S U U S S

4–2

Full-time

Rakow

U U S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Jagiellonia Rakow

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,3

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

67%

17%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,8

1,8

Scored

2,2

1,0

Conceded

0,7

0,8

Goal diff per game

+1,5

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ekstraklasa · 17/16 matches

Win Ø 55%

59%

50%

Points per game

2,0

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 69%

82%

56%

Both score Ø 64%

65%

63%

Average goals

3,5

3,1

Scored

2,2

2,0

Conceded

1,3

1,1

Goal diff per game

+0,9

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

2,14 xG 2,81

49% Possession 51%

13 Shots 16

5 Shots on target 8

3 Blocked shots 3

6 Goalkeeper saves 1

3 Corners 8

5 Offside 2

19 Free kicks against 15

3 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Jagiellonia 2. · Rakow 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Slask Wroclaw	18	11	5	2	+15	+2.4	38
2	Jagiellonia	17	10	4	3	+16	+6.8	34
3	Lech Poznan	18	9	5	4	+7	-2.0	32
4	Rakow	16	8	5	3	+14	+7.6	29
5	Legia	17	8	5	4	+6	+5.2	29
6	Pogon Szczecin	18	8	3	7	+10	+10.1	27
7	Zaglebie	18	7	4	7	-8	+3.1	25
8	Radomiak Radom	18	6	5	7	+1	+2.3	23
9	Gornik Zabrze	18	6	5	7	-2	-2.9	23
10	Stal Mielec	17	6	4	7	-1	-7.8	22
11	Widzew Lodz	17	6	4	7	-3	-2.0	22
12	Piast Gliwice	17	3	12	2	+1	+10.4	21
13	Warta Poznan	18	4	7	7	-3	-2.9	19
14	Korona Kielce	17	3	9	5	-1	-1.3	18
15	Cracovia	17	3	9	5	-6	-2.1	18
16	Puszcza	16	4	4	8	-11	-11.0	16
17	Ruch Chorzow	18	1	9	8	-12	-7.5	12
18	LKS Lodz	17	2	3	12	-23	-8.3	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Jagiellonia	8	7	1	0	+17	+8.4	22
2	Rakow	9	6	3	0	+16	+8.0	21
3	Lech Poznan	10	6	2	2	+10	+0.5	20
4	Slask Wroclaw	9	5	3	1	+8	+4.3	18
5	Legia	9	5	2	2	+7	+6.0	17
6	Zaglebie	9	4	3	2	+0	+2.5	15
7	Widzew Lodz	8	5	0	3	+0	+4.8	15
8	Stal Mielec	8	4	2	2	+5	-0.9	14
9	Pogon Szczecin	10	4	2	4	+3	+11.8	14
10	Gornik Zabrze	8	4	2	2	+0	-2.9	14
11	Puszcza	8	3	3	2	-1	-3.4	12
12	Korona Kielce	8	2	4	2	+2	+3.9	10
13	Radomiak Radom	9	2	4	3	+1	+2.9	10
14	Piast Gliwice	7	2	4	1	+1	+7.6	10
15	LKS Lodz	9	2	3	4	-9	-7.3	9
16	Ruch Chorzow	9	1	5	3	-4	-1.7	8
17	Cracovia	9	1	5	3	-6	-0.4	8
18	Warta Poznan	9	1	3	5	-5	-0.8	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Slask Wroclaw	9	6	2	1	+7	-1.9	20
2	Pogon Szczecin	8	4	1	3	+7	-1.7	13
3	Warta Poznan	9	3	4	2	+2	-2.2	13
4	Radomiak Radom	9	4	1	4	+0	-0.6	13
5	Jagiellonia	9	3	3	3	-1	-1.6	12
6	Legia	8	3	3	2	-1	-0.8	12
7	Lech Poznan	8	3	3	2	-3	-2.5	12
8	Piast Gliwice	10	1	8	1	+0	+2.8	11
9	Cracovia	8	2	4	2	+0	-1.7	10
10	Zaglebie	9	3	1	5	-8	+0.6	10
11	Gornik Zabrze	10	2	3	5	-2	-0.1	9
12	Rakow	7	2	2	3	-2	-0.4	8
13	Korona Kielce	9	1	5	3	-3	-5.2	8
14	Stal Mielec	9	2	2	5	-6	-7.0	8
15	Widzew Lodz	9	1	4	4	-3	-6.8	7
16	Ruch Chorzow	9	0	4	5	-8	-5.9	4
17	Puszcza	8	1	1	6	-10	-7.7	4
18	LKS Lodz	8	0	0	8	-14	-1.0	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.