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Ekstraklasa

Referee: K Arys

Warta Poznan

U S S T U

1–2

Full-time

Jagiellonia

T S S U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Warta Poznan Jagiellonia

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,8

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

33%

83%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

2,3

3,5

Scored

1,5

2,2

Conceded

0,8

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ekstraklasa · 16/16 matches

Win Ø 41%

25%

56%

Points per game

1,1

1,9

Over 2.5 Ø 53%

25%

81%

Both score Ø 51%

38%

63%

Average goals

2,1

3,6

Scored

1,0

2,3

Conceded

1,1

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,1

+0,9

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

1,75 xG 2,33

40% Possession 60%

13 Shots 14

4 Shots on target 5

5 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

8 Corners 2

1 Offside 0

18 Free kicks against 14

5 Yellow cards 1

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Warta Poznan 13. · Jagiellonia 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Slask Wroclaw	16	11	3	2	+15	+2.8	36
2	Jagiellonia	16	9	4	3	+15	+6.2	31
3	Lech Poznan	16	8	5	3	+7	-3.0	29
4	Rakow	15	8	4	3	+14	+7.2	28
5	Pogon Szczecin	16	8	2	6	+11	+10.1	26
6	Legia	15	7	4	4	+3	+2.8	25
7	Zaglebie	16	7	3	6	-5	+4.3	24
8	Widzew Lodz	16	6	4	6	+0	-2.0	22
9	Stal Mielec	16	6	3	7	-1	-7.8	21
10	Radomiak Radom	16	5	4	7	-2	+2.4	19
11	Gornik Zabrze	16	5	4	7	-3	-2.9	19
12	Piast Gliwice	16	2	12	2	+0	+10.3	18
13	Warta Poznan	16	4	6	6	-2	-2.4	18
14	Korona Kielce	15	3	8	4	+0	-0.2	17
15	Cracovia	15	3	7	5	-6	-2.7	16
16	Puszcza	16	4	4	8	-11	-11.0	16
17	Ruch Chorzow	16	1	7	8	-12	-7.0	10
18	LKS Lodz	16	2	2	12	-23	-7.1	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Jagiellonia	8	7	1	0	+17	+8.4	22
2	Rakow	9	6	3	0	+16	+8.0	21
3	Lech Poznan	9	6	2	1	+11	+0.6	20
4	Legia	9	5	2	2	+7	+6.0	17
5	Slask Wroclaw	7	5	1	1	+8	+4.6	16
6	Zaglebie	8	4	3	1	+3	+3.6	15
7	Widzew Lodz	7	5	0	2	+3	+4.8	15
8	Stal Mielec	8	4	2	2	+5	-0.9	14
9	Pogon Szczecin	9	4	1	4	+3	+11.8	13
10	Puszcza	8	3	3	2	-1	-3.4	12
11	Gornik Zabrze	7	3	2	2	-1	-2.9	11
12	Korona Kielce	7	2	4	1	+3	+5.0	10
13	Piast Gliwice	7	2	4	1	+1	+7.6	10
14	Radomiak Radom	8	2	3	3	+1	+2.9	9
15	LKS Lodz	8	2	2	4	-9	-6.1	8
16	Ruch Chorzow	8	1	4	3	-4	-1.7	7
17	Warta Poznan	8	1	3	4	-4	-0.2	6
18	Cracovia	7	1	3	3	-6	-1.0	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Slask Wroclaw	9	6	2	1	+7	-1.9	20
2	Pogon Szczecin	7	4	1	2	+8	-1.7	13
3	Warta Poznan	8	3	3	2	+2	-2.2	12
4	Cracovia	8	2	4	2	+0	-1.7	10
5	Radomiak Radom	8	3	1	4	-3	-0.5	10
6	Jagiellonia	8	2	3	3	-2	-2.1	9
7	Lech Poznan	7	2	3	2	-4	-3.6	9
8	Zaglebie	8	3	0	5	-8	+0.7	9
9	Piast Gliwice	9	0	8	1	-1	+2.7	8
10	Gornik Zabrze	9	2	2	5	-2	-0.1	8
11	Legia	6	2	2	2	-4	-3.2	8
12	Rakow	6	2	1	3	-2	-0.8	7
13	Widzew Lodz	9	1	4	4	-3	-6.8	7
14	Korona Kielce	8	1	4	3	-3	-5.2	7
15	Stal Mielec	8	2	1	5	-6	-7.0	7
16	Puszcza	8	1	1	6	-10	-7.7	4
17	Ruch Chorzow	8	0	3	5	-8	-5.2	3
18	LKS Lodz	8	0	0	8	-14	-1.0	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.