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League Cup

Referee: O Yates

Bristol City

T S T S U

5–1

Full-time

Oxford

U T S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Bristol City Oxford

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/5 matches

Win Ø 37%

33%

40%

Points per game

1,2

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 57%

33%

80%

Both score Ø 55%

50%

60%

Average goals

2,2

3,4

Scored

1,0

1,6

Conceded

1,2

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

65% Possession 35%

15 Shots 13

9 Shots on target 3

2 Blocked shots 6

2 Goalkeeper saves 4

5 Corners 1

3 Offside 0

8 Free kicks against 9

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Reading	1	1	0	0	+4	3
2	Swansea	1	1	0	0	+3	3
3	Portsmouth	1	1	0	0	+2	3
4	Newport County	1	1	0	0	+2	3
5	Gillingham	1	1	0	0	+2	3
6	Blackpool	1	1	0	0	+2	3
7	Plymouth	1	1	0	0	+2	3
8	Wycombe	1	1	0	0	+2	3
9	Lincoln	1	1	0	0	+2	3
10	Birmingham	1	1	0	0	+2	3
11	Mansfield Town	1	1	0	0	+2	3
12	Blackburn	1	1	0	0	+1	3
13	Middlesbrough	1	1	0	0	+1	3
14	Port Vale	1	1	0	0	+1	3
15	Doncaster	1	1	0	0	+1	3
16	Stoke	1	1	0	0	+1	3
17	Exeter City	1	1	0	0	+1	3
18	Bolton	1	1	0	0	+1	3
19	Harrogate Town	1	1	0	0	+1	3
20	Barnsley	1	0	1	0	+0	1
21	Tranmere	1	0	1	0	+0	1
22	Preston	1	0	1	0	+0	1
23	Salford City	1	0	1	0	+0	1
24	Sutton Utd	1	0	1	0	+0	1
25	Cambridge United	1	0	1	0	+0	1
26	Sunderland	1	0	1	0	+0	1
27	Crewe	1	0	1	0	+0	1
28	Sheffield Weds	1	0	1	0	+0	1
29	Stockport County	1	0	1	0	+0	1
30	Rotherham	1	0	1	0	+0	1
31	Morecambe	1	0	1	0	+0	1
32	Peterborough	1	0	1	0	+0	1
33	Swindon Town	1	0	1	0	+0	1
34	Accrington ST	1	0	1	0	+0	1
35	Bradford	1	0	1	0	+0	1
36	Stevenage	1	0	1	0	+0	1
37	Watford	1	0	1	0	+0	1
38	Wrexham	1	0	1	0	+0	1
39	Wigan	1	0	1	0	+0	1
40	Walsall	1	0	0	1	-1	0
41	Huddersfield	1	0	0	1	-1	0
42	Fleetwood Town	1	0	0	1	-1	0
43	Hull	1	0	0	1	-1	0
44	West Brom	1	0	0	1	-1	0
45	Crawley Town	1	0	0	1	-1	0
46	Barrow	1	0	0	1	-1	0
47	Carlisle	1	0	0	1	-1	0
48	Forest Green	1	0	0	1	-2	0
49	Charlton	1	0	0	1	-2	0
50	Southampton	1	0	0	1	-2	0
51	Derby	1	0	0	1	-2	0
52	Leyton Orient	1	0	0	1	-2	0
53	Milton Keynes Dons	1	0	0	1	-2	0
54	Notts County	1	0	0	1	-2	0
55	Cheltenham	1	0	0	1	-2	0
56	Grimsby	1	0	0	1	-2	0
57	Northampton	1	0	0	1	-3	0
58	Millwall	1	0	0	1	-4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Swansea	1	1	0	0	+3	3
2	Newport County	1	1	0	0	+2	3
3	Gillingham	1	1	0	0	+2	3
4	Plymouth	1	1	0	0	+2	3
5	Mansfield Town	1	1	0	0	+2	3
6	Blackburn	1	1	0	0	+1	3
7	Port Vale	1	1	0	0	+1	3
8	Stoke	1	1	0	0	+1	3
9	Exeter City	1	1	0	0	+1	3
10	Bolton	1	1	0	0	+1	3
11	Harrogate Town	1	1	0	0	+1	3
12	Barnsley	1	0	1	0	+0	1
13	Preston	1	0	1	0	+0	1
14	Sutton Utd	1	0	1	0	+0	1
15	Sunderland	1	0	1	0	+0	1
16	Sheffield Weds	1	0	1	0	+0	1
17	Rotherham	1	0	1	0	+0	1
18	Peterborough	1	0	1	0	+0	1
19	Accrington ST	1	0	1	0	+0	1
20	Stevenage	1	0	1	0	+0	1
21	Wrexham	1	0	1	0	+0	1
22	Huddersfield	1	0	0	1	-1	0
23	Hull	1	0	0	1	-1	0
24	Forest Green	1	0	0	1	-2	0
25	Derby	1	0	0	1	-2	0
26	Milton Keynes Dons	1	0	0	1	-2	0
27	Notts County	1	0	0	1	-2	0
28	Cheltenham	1	0	0	1	-2	0
29	Millwall	1	0	0	1	-4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Reading	1	1	0	0	+4	3
2	Portsmouth	1	1	0	0	+2	3
3	Blackpool	1	1	0	0	+2	3
4	Wycombe	1	1	0	0	+2	3
5	Lincoln	1	1	0	0	+2	3
6	Birmingham	1	1	0	0	+2	3
7	Middlesbrough	1	1	0	0	+1	3
8	Doncaster	1	1	0	0	+1	3
9	Tranmere	1	0	1	0	+0	1
10	Salford City	1	0	1	0	+0	1
11	Cambridge United	1	0	1	0	+0	1
12	Crewe	1	0	1	0	+0	1
13	Stockport County	1	0	1	0	+0	1
14	Morecambe	1	0	1	0	+0	1
15	Swindon Town	1	0	1	0	+0	1
16	Bradford	1	0	1	0	+0	1
17	Watford	1	0	1	0	+0	1
18	Wigan	1	0	1	0	+0	1
19	Walsall	1	0	0	1	-1	0
20	Fleetwood Town	1	0	0	1	-1	0
21	West Brom	1	0	0	1	-1	0
22	Crawley Town	1	0	0	1	-1	0
23	Barrow	1	0	0	1	-1	0
24	Carlisle	1	0	0	1	-1	0
25	Charlton	1	0	0	1	-2	0
26	Southampton	1	0	0	1	-2	0
27	Leyton Orient	1	0	0	1	-2	0
28	Grimsby	1	0	0	1	-2	0
29	Northampton	1	0	0	1	-3	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.