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League Cup

Referee: M Donohue

Swansea

U S T U T

2–3

Full-time

Bournemouth

T T U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Swansea Bournemouth

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

1,3

0,2

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

67%

17%

Both score Ø 58%

83%

33%

Average goals

3,3

2,0

Scored

1,8

0,3

Conceded

1,5

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-1,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

43% Possession 57%

5 Shots 21

2 Shots on target 8

1 Blocked shots 3

4 Goalkeeper saves 0

3 Corners 9

1 Offside 6

20 Free kicks against 15

3 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bristol City	1	1	0	0	+4	3
2	Reading	1	1	0	0	+4	3
3	Swansea	1	1	0	0	+3	3
4	Portsmouth	1	1	0	0	+2	3
5	Newport County	1	1	0	0	+2	3
6	Gillingham	1	1	0	0	+2	3
7	Ipswich	1	1	0	0	+2	3
8	Blackpool	1	1	0	0	+2	3
9	Plymouth	1	1	0	0	+2	3
10	Wycombe	1	1	0	0	+2	3
11	Leicester	1	1	0	0	+2	3
12	Lincoln	1	1	0	0	+2	3
13	Birmingham	1	1	0	0	+2	3
14	Mansfield Town	1	1	0	0	+2	3
15	Blackburn	1	1	0	0	+1	3
16	Middlesbrough	1	1	0	0	+1	3
17	Port Vale	1	1	0	0	+1	3
18	Leeds	1	1	0	0	+1	3
19	Doncaster	1	1	0	0	+1	3
20	Stoke	1	1	0	0	+1	3
21	Exeter City	1	1	0	0	+1	3
22	AFC Wimbledon	1	1	0	0	+1	3
23	Norwich	1	1	0	0	+1	3
24	Bolton	1	1	0	0	+1	3
25	Harrogate Town	1	1	0	0	+1	3
26	Barnsley	1	0	1	0	+0	1
27	Tranmere	1	0	1	0	+0	1
28	Preston	1	0	1	0	+0	1
29	Salford City	1	0	1	0	+0	1
30	Cardiff	1	0	1	0	+0	1
31	Colchester	1	0	1	0	+0	1
32	Sutton Utd	1	0	1	0	+0	1
33	Cambridge United	1	0	1	0	+0	1
34	Sunderland	1	0	1	0	+0	1
35	Crewe	1	0	1	0	+0	1
36	Sheffield Weds	1	0	1	0	+0	1
37	Stockport County	1	0	1	0	+0	1
38	Rotherham	1	0	1	0	+0	1
39	Morecambe	1	0	1	0	+0	1
40	Peterborough	1	0	1	0	+0	1
41	Swindon Town	1	0	1	0	+0	1
42	Accrington ST	1	0	1	0	+0	1
43	Bradford	1	0	1	0	+0	1
44	Stevenage	1	0	1	0	+0	1
45	Watford	1	0	1	0	+0	1
46	Wrexham	1	0	1	0	+0	1
47	Wigan	1	0	1	0	+0	1
48	Walsall	1	0	0	1	-1	0
49	Huddersfield	1	0	0	1	-1	0
50	Fleetwood Town	1	0	0	1	-1	0
51	Shrewsbury	1	0	0	1	-1	0
52	Hull	1	0	0	1	-1	0
53	West Brom	1	0	0	1	-1	0
54	Crawley Town	1	0	0	1	-1	0
55	Coventry	1	0	0	1	-1	0
56	QPR	1	0	0	1	-1	0
57	Barrow	1	0	0	1	-1	0
58	Carlisle	1	0	0	1	-1	0
59	Forest Green	1	0	0	1	-2	0
60	Charlton	1	0	0	1	-2	0
61	Southampton	1	0	0	1	-2	0
62	Bristol Rovers	1	0	0	1	-2	0
63	Derby	1	0	0	1	-2	0
64	Leyton Orient	1	0	0	1	-2	0
65	Milton Keynes Dons	1	0	0	1	-2	0
66	Burton Albion	1	0	0	1	-2	0
67	Notts County	1	0	0	1	-2	0
68	Cheltenham	1	0	0	1	-2	0
69	Grimsby	1	0	0	1	-2	0
70	Northampton	1	0	0	1	-3	0
71	Oxford	1	0	0	1	-4	0
72	Millwall	1	0	0	1	-4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bristol City	1	1	0	0	+4	3
2	Swansea	1	1	0	0	+3	3
3	Newport County	1	1	0	0	+2	3
4	Gillingham	1	1	0	0	+2	3
5	Ipswich	1	1	0	0	+2	3
6	Plymouth	1	1	0	0	+2	3
7	Mansfield Town	1	1	0	0	+2	3
8	Blackburn	1	1	0	0	+1	3
9	Port Vale	1	1	0	0	+1	3
10	Leeds	1	1	0	0	+1	3
11	Stoke	1	1	0	0	+1	3
12	Exeter City	1	1	0	0	+1	3
13	AFC Wimbledon	1	1	0	0	+1	3
14	Bolton	1	1	0	0	+1	3
15	Harrogate Town	1	1	0	0	+1	3
16	Barnsley	1	0	1	0	+0	1
17	Preston	1	0	1	0	+0	1
18	Cardiff	1	0	1	0	+0	1
19	Sutton Utd	1	0	1	0	+0	1
20	Sunderland	1	0	1	0	+0	1
21	Sheffield Weds	1	0	1	0	+0	1
22	Rotherham	1	0	1	0	+0	1
23	Peterborough	1	0	1	0	+0	1
24	Accrington ST	1	0	1	0	+0	1
25	Stevenage	1	0	1	0	+0	1
26	Wrexham	1	0	1	0	+0	1
27	Huddersfield	1	0	0	1	-1	0
28	Hull	1	0	0	1	-1	0
29	QPR	1	0	0	1	-1	0
30	Forest Green	1	0	0	1	-2	0
31	Derby	1	0	0	1	-2	0
32	Milton Keynes Dons	1	0	0	1	-2	0
33	Burton Albion	1	0	0	1	-2	0
34	Notts County	1	0	0	1	-2	0
35	Cheltenham	1	0	0	1	-2	0
36	Millwall	1	0	0	1	-4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Reading	1	1	0	0	+4	3
2	Portsmouth	1	1	0	0	+2	3
3	Blackpool	1	1	0	0	+2	3
4	Wycombe	1	1	0	0	+2	3
5	Leicester	1	1	0	0	+2	3
6	Lincoln	1	1	0	0	+2	3
7	Birmingham	1	1	0	0	+2	3
8	Middlesbrough	1	1	0	0	+1	3
9	Doncaster	1	1	0	0	+1	3
10	Norwich	1	1	0	0	+1	3
11	Tranmere	1	0	1	0	+0	1
12	Salford City	1	0	1	0	+0	1
13	Colchester	1	0	1	0	+0	1
14	Cambridge United	1	0	1	0	+0	1
15	Crewe	1	0	1	0	+0	1
16	Stockport County	1	0	1	0	+0	1
17	Morecambe	1	0	1	0	+0	1
18	Swindon Town	1	0	1	0	+0	1
19	Bradford	1	0	1	0	+0	1
20	Watford	1	0	1	0	+0	1
21	Wigan	1	0	1	0	+0	1
22	Walsall	1	0	0	1	-1	0
23	Fleetwood Town	1	0	0	1	-1	0
24	Shrewsbury	1	0	0	1	-1	0
25	West Brom	1	0	0	1	-1	0
26	Crawley Town	1	0	0	1	-1	0
27	Coventry	1	0	0	1	-1	0
28	Barrow	1	0	0	1	-1	0
29	Carlisle	1	0	0	1	-1	0
30	Charlton	1	0	0	1	-2	0
31	Southampton	1	0	0	1	-2	0
32	Bristol Rovers	1	0	0	1	-2	0
33	Leyton Orient	1	0	0	1	-2	0
34	Grimsby	1	0	0	1	-2	0
35	Northampton	1	0	0	1	-3	0
36	Oxford	1	0	0	1	-4	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.