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Championship

Referee: T Robinson

Birmingham

T T T U S

1–0

Full-time

Leeds

U T T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Birmingham Leeds

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,2

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

17%

100%

Both score Ø 67%

33%

100%

Average goals

1,8

3,8

Scored

0,8

1,5

Conceded

1,0

2,3

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 1/1 matches

Win Ø 0%

Points per game

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

100%

Both score Ø 100%

100%

Average goals

2,0

4,0

Scored

1,0

2,0

Conceded

1,0

2,0

Goal diff per game

+0,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,56 xG 0,36

41% Possession 59%

10 Shots 7

2 Shots on target 1

3 Blocked shots 3

1 Goalkeeper saves 1

7 Corners 4

1 Offside 0

13 Free kicks against 10

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Birmingham 14. · Leeds 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Watford	1	1	0	0	+4	+2.3	3
2	Stoke	1	1	0	0	+3	+1.6	3
3	Coventry	2	1	0	1	+2	-0.0	3
4	Plymouth	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.1	3
5	Norwich	1	1	0	0	+1	+2.2	3
6	Leicester	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.4	3
7	Ipswich	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.7	3
8	Blackburn	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.6	3
9	Southampton	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.8	3
10	Millwall	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.5	3
11	Leeds	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.4	1
12	Cardiff	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.4	1
13	Swansea	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.6	1
14	Birmingham	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.6	1
15	Bristol City	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.2	1
16	Preston	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.2	1
17	Hull	1	0	0	1	-1	-2.2	0
18	Sunderland	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.7	0
19	West Brom	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.6	0
20	Sheffield Weds	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.8	0
21	Huddersfield	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.1	0
22	Rotherham	1	0	0	1	-3	-1.6	0
23	QPR	1	0	0	1	-4	-2.3	0
24	Middlesbrough	2	0	0	2	-4	-0.1	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Watford	1	1	0	0	+4	+2.3	3
2	Stoke	1	1	0	0	+3	+1.6	3
3	Coventry	1	1	0	0	+3	-0.4	3
4	Plymouth	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.1	3
5	Norwich	1	1	0	0	+1	+2.2	3
6	Leicester	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.4	3
7	Blackburn	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.6	3
8	Leeds	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.4	1
9	Swansea	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.6	1
10	Bristol City	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.2	1
11	Sunderland	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.7	0
12	Sheffield Weds	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.8	0
13	Middlesbrough	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Ipswich	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.7	3
2	Southampton	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.8	3
3	Millwall	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.5	3
4	Cardiff	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.4	1
5	Birmingham	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.6	1
6	Preston	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.2	1
7	Hull	1	0	0	1	-1	-2.2	0
8	Coventry	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.4	0
9	West Brom	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.6	0
10	Huddersfield	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.1	0
11	Rotherham	1	0	0	1	-3	-1.6	0
12	Middlesbrough	1	0	0	1	-3	+0.4	0
13	QPR	1	0	0	1	-4	-2.3	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.