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Premier League

Referee: M Dean

Man United

S U S S S

0–1

Full-time

Aston Villa

T S U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Man United Aston Villa

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

83%

50%

Points per game

2,7

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

3,3

3,0

Scored

2,5

1,7

Conceded

0,8

1,3

Goal diff per game

+1,7

+0,3

This season — Premier League · 5/5 matches

Win Ø 60%

80%

40%

Points per game

2,6

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 60%

60%

Both score Ø 60%

80%

40%

Average goals

3,4

3,0

Scored

2,6

1,6

Conceded

0,8

1,4

Goal diff per game

+1,8

+0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

60% Possession 40%

28 Shots 7

4 Shots on target 3

13 Blocked shots 1

2 Goalkeeper saves 4

5 Corners 5

2 Offside 3

9 Free kicks against 13

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Man United 3. · Aston Villa 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	5	4	1	0	+11	13
2	Chelsea	5	4	1	0	+11	13
3	Man United	5	4	1	0	+9	13
4	Brighton	5	4	0	1	+3	12
5	Man City	5	3	1	1	+10	10
6	Everton	5	3	1	1	+3	10
7	Tottenham	5	3	0	2	-3	9
8	West Ham	5	2	2	1	+4	8
9	Brentford	5	2	2	1	+3	8
10	Aston Villa	5	2	1	2	+1	7
11	Watford	5	2	0	3	-2	6
12	Leicester	5	2	0	3	-3	6
13	Arsenal	5	2	0	3	-7	6
14	Crystal Palace	5	1	2	2	-3	5
15	Southampton	5	0	4	1	-2	4
16	Wolves	5	1	0	4	-3	3
17	Leeds	5	0	3	2	-7	3
18	Newcastle	5	0	2	3	-7	2
19	Burnley	5	0	1	4	-6	1
20	Norwich	5	0	0	5	-12	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	3	2	1	0	+10	7
2	Liverpool	3	2	1	0	+5	7
3	Aston Villa	3	2	1	0	+5	7
4	Man United	2	2	0	0	+7	6
5	Chelsea	2	2	0	0	+6	6
6	Everton	2	2	0	0	+4	6
7	Brighton	3	2	0	1	+1	6
8	Tottenham	3	2	0	1	-1	6
9	Crystal Palace	2	1	1	0	+3	4
10	West Ham	3	1	1	1	+2	4
11	Brentford	2	1	0	1	+1	3
12	Leicester	2	1	0	1	+0	3
13	Watford	2	1	0	1	-1	3
14	Arsenal	2	1	0	1	-1	3
15	Southampton	2	0	2	0	+0	2
16	Newcastle	3	0	2	1	-2	2
17	Burnley	3	0	1	2	-2	1
18	Leeds	2	0	1	1	-3	1
19	Wolves	3	0	0	3	-4	0
20	Norwich	3	0	0	3	-6	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Chelsea	3	2	1	0	+5	7
2	Man United	3	2	1	0	+2	7
3	Liverpool	2	2	0	0	+6	6
4	Brighton	2	2	0	0	+2	6
5	Brentford	3	1	2	0	+2	5
6	West Ham	2	1	1	0	+2	4
7	Everton	3	1	1	1	-1	4
8	Wolves	2	1	0	1	+1	3
9	Man City	2	1	0	1	+0	3
10	Watford	3	1	0	2	-1	3
11	Tottenham	2	1	0	1	-2	3
12	Leicester	3	1	0	2	-3	3
13	Arsenal	3	1	0	2	-6	3
14	Southampton	3	0	2	1	-2	2
15	Leeds	3	0	2	1	-4	2
16	Crystal Palace	3	0	1	2	-6	1
17	Aston Villa	2	0	0	2	-4	0
18	Burnley	2	0	0	2	-4	0
19	Newcastle	2	0	0	2	-5	0
20	Norwich	2	0	0	2	-6	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.