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Premier League

Referee: C Kavanagh

Aston Villa

S T T U S

1–3

Full-time

Man United

S S S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Aston Villa Man United

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 58%

33%

83%

Points per game

1,2

2,7

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

83%

50%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

3,2

2,3

Scored

1,5

1,8

Conceded

1,7

0,5

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+1,3

This season — Premier League · 33/33 matches

Win Ø 50%

42%

58%

Points per game

1,5

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 57%

55%

58%

Both score Ø 52%

45%

58%

Average goals

2,6

3,0

Scored

1,5

1,9

Conceded

1,2

1,1

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+0,9

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

41% Possession 59%

11 Shots 18

5 Shots on target 7

3 Blocked shots 7

4 Goalkeeper saves 5

5 Corners 6

13 Free kicks against 18

1 Yellow cards 1

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Aston Villa 11. · Man United 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	35	25	5	5	+46	80
2	Man United	33	19	10	4	+29	67
3	Chelsea	35	18	10	7	+23	64
4	Leicester	35	19	6	10	+20	63
5	West Ham	34	17	7	10	+11	58
6	Liverpool	34	16	9	9	+18	57
7	Tottenham	35	16	8	11	+20	56
8	Everton	33	15	7	11	+3	52
9	Leeds	35	15	5	15	+0	50
10	Arsenal	34	14	7	13	+9	49
11	Aston Villa	33	14	6	13	+10	48
12	Wolves	35	12	9	14	-12	45
13	Crystal Palace	34	11	8	15	-20	41
14	Newcastle	35	10	9	16	-18	39
15	Brighton	35	8	13	14	-5	37
16	Southampton	34	10	7	17	-20	37
17	Burnley	34	9	9	16	-16	36
18	Fulham	34	5	12	17	-20	27
19	West Brom	34	5	11	18	-34	26
20	Sheffield United	35	5	2	28	-44	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	18	12	2	4	+21	38
2	West Ham	17	9	4	4	+8	31
3	Tottenham	17	9	3	5	+14	30
4	Man United	16	9	3	4	+13	30
5	Chelsea	17	8	6	3	+13	30
6	Liverpool	18	9	3	6	+7	30
7	Leicester	18	9	1	8	+6	28
8	Leeds	18	7	5	6	+5	26
9	Wolves	18	7	4	7	-3	25
10	Arsenal	17	6	4	7	-1	22
11	Aston Villa	16	6	3	7	+3	21
12	Southampton	16	6	3	7	+1	21
13	Newcastle	17	5	5	7	-7	20
14	Crystal Palace	17	5	5	7	-11	20
15	Everton	17	5	4	8	-4	19
16	Burnley	17	4	6	7	-6	18
17	Brighton	17	3	8	6	-1	17
18	West Brom	17	3	6	8	-21	15
19	Sheffield United	18	4	1	13	-16	13
20	Fulham	17	2	4	11	-15	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	17	13	3	1	+25	42
2	Man United	17	10	7	0	+16	37
3	Leicester	17	10	5	2	+14	35
4	Chelsea	18	10	4	4	+10	34
5	Everton	16	10	3	3	+7	33
6	Liverpool	16	7	6	3	+11	27
7	Arsenal	17	8	3	6	+10	27
8	Aston Villa	17	8	3	6	+7	27
9	West Ham	17	8	3	6	+3	27
10	Tottenham	18	7	5	6	+6	26
11	Leeds	17	8	0	9	-5	24
12	Crystal Palace	17	6	3	8	-9	21
13	Brighton	18	5	5	8	-4	20
14	Wolves	17	5	5	7	-9	20
15	Newcastle	18	5	4	9	-11	19
16	Burnley	17	5	3	9	-10	18
17	Fulham	17	3	8	6	-5	17
18	Southampton	18	4	4	10	-21	16
19	West Brom	17	2	5	10	-13	11
20	Sheffield United	17	1	1	15	-28	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.