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Premier League

Referee: M Oliver

Man United

U S S U S

2–1

Full-time

Aston Villa

S U S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Man United Aston Villa

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

67%

50%

Points per game

2,3

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

3,7

2,0

Scored

2,5

1,5

Conceded

1,2

0,5

Goal diff per game

+1,3

+1,0

This season — Premier League · 15/14 matches

Win Ø 59%

60%

57%

Points per game

2,0

1,9

Over 2.5 Ø 66%

67%

64%

Both score Ø 52%

67%

36%

Average goals

3,6

3,0

Scored

2,1

2,0

Conceded

1,5

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

48% Possession 52%

19 Shots 5

9 Shots on target 5

5 Blocked shots 4

4 Goalkeeper saves 7

5 Corners 10

1 Offside 1

22 Free kicks against 10

4 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Man United 2. · Aston Villa 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	16	9	6	1	+17	33
2	Man United	15	9	3	3	+8	30
3	Leicester	16	9	2	5	+9	29
4	Everton	16	9	2	5	+6	29
5	Aston Villa	14	8	2	4	+14	26
6	Chelsea	16	7	5	4	+13	26
7	Tottenham	15	7	5	3	+11	26
8	Man City	14	7	5	2	+9	26
9	Southampton	16	7	5	4	+6	26
10	West Ham	17	7	5	5	+3	26
11	Leeds	16	7	2	7	+0	23
12	Wolves	16	6	3	7	-6	21
13	Arsenal	16	6	2	8	-3	20
14	Newcastle	15	5	4	6	-7	19
15	Crystal Palace	16	5	4	7	-9	19
16	Burnley	15	4	4	7	-11	16
17	Brighton	16	2	7	7	-7	13
18	Fulham	15	2	5	8	-10	11
19	West Brom	16	1	5	10	-24	8
20	Sheffield United	16	0	2	14	-19	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	8	7	1	0	+13	22
2	Chelsea	8	4	3	1	+10	15
3	Man City	7	4	2	1	+7	14
4	Southampton	8	4	1	3	+4	13
5	Everton	8	4	1	3	+3	13
6	West Ham	8	3	3	2	+2	12
7	Wolves	8	3	3	2	+1	12
8	Tottenham	7	3	2	2	+2	11
9	Leeds	8	3	2	3	+0	11
10	Man United	8	3	2	3	-2	11
11	Newcastle	8	3	2	3	-4	11
12	Aston Villa	7	3	1	3	+4	10
13	Leicester	8	3	1	4	-1	10
14	Arsenal	8	3	1	4	-2	10
15	Burnley	7	3	1	3	-2	10
16	Crystal Palace	8	2	3	3	-6	9
17	Fulham	8	1	3	4	-6	6
18	West Brom	8	1	2	5	-15	5
19	Brighton	8	0	4	4	-5	4
20	Sheffield United	8	0	1	7	-8	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man United	7	6	1	0	+10	19
2	Leicester	8	6	1	1	+10	19
3	Aston Villa	7	5	1	1	+10	16
4	Everton	8	5	1	2	+3	16
5	Tottenham	8	4	3	1	+9	15
6	West Ham	9	4	2	3	+1	14
7	Southampton	8	3	4	1	+2	13
8	Man City	7	3	3	1	+2	12
9	Leeds	8	4	0	4	+0	12
10	Liverpool	8	2	5	1	+4	11
11	Chelsea	8	3	2	3	+3	11
12	Arsenal	8	3	1	4	-1	10
13	Crystal Palace	8	3	1	4	-3	10
14	Brighton	8	2	3	3	-2	9
15	Wolves	8	3	0	5	-7	9
16	Newcastle	7	2	2	3	-3	8
17	Burnley	8	1	3	4	-9	6
18	Fulham	7	1	2	4	-4	5
19	West Brom	8	0	3	5	-9	3
20	Sheffield United	8	0	1	7	-11	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.