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Premier League

Referee: Anthony Taylor

Man United

S T S S T

1–0

Full-time

Aston Villa

T T T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Man United Aston Villa

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

67%

Points per game

2,0

0,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 25%

17%

33%

Average goals

2,0

3,0

Scored

1,0

0,3

Conceded

1,0

2,7

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-2,3

This season — Premier League · 32/33 matches

Win Ø 28%

47%

Points per game

1,7

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 46%

47%

45%

Both score Ø 42%

38%

45%

Average goals

2,2

2,6

Scored

1,2

0,7

Conceded

0,9

1,9

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-1,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

66% Possession 34%

13 Shots 7

4 Shots on target 1

2 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 3

14 Corners 3

4 Offside 0

0 Free kicks against 0

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Man United 5. · Aston Villa 20. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leicester	33	21	9	3	+26	72
2	Tottenham	33	18	11	4	+35	65
3	Arsenal	32	17	8	7	+22	59
4	Man City	32	17	6	9	+25	57
5	Man United	32	15	8	9	+9	53
6	West Ham	32	13	13	6	+12	52
7	Southampton	33	14	8	11	+10	50
8	Liverpool	31	13	9	9	+8	48
9	Stoke	33	13	8	12	-6	47
10	Chelsea	32	11	11	10	+7	44
11	Bournemouth	33	11	8	14	-15	41
12	Everton	32	9	13	10	+9	40
13	Swansea	33	10	10	13	-8	40
14	West Brom	32	10	10	12	-8	40
15	Watford	32	10	8	14	-6	38
16	Crystal Palace	33	10	8	15	-7	38
17	Norwich	34	8	7	19	-25	31
18	Sunderland	33	7	9	17	-18	30
19	Newcastle	32	6	7	19	-29	25
20	Aston Villa	33	3	7	23	-41	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Tottenham	17	10	5	2	+21	35
2	Leicester	16	10	5	1	+11	35
3	Man City	17	11	1	5	+22	34
4	Man United	15	9	4	2	+13	31
5	Arsenal	15	9	3	3	+13	30
6	Southampton	17	9	3	5	+12	30
7	West Ham	16	7	7	2	+8	28
8	Swansea	17	7	5	5	-2	26
9	Liverpool	15	6	6	3	+5	24
10	Stoke	16	7	3	6	+1	24
11	Chelsea	16	5	7	4	+5	22
12	West Brom	16	6	4	6	-2	22
13	Watford	17	5	5	7	+0	20
14	Norwich	17	5	5	7	-5	20
15	Bournemouth	16	5	4	7	-7	19
16	Newcastle	15	4	6	5	+0	18
17	Crystal Palace	18	5	3	10	-5	18
18	Sunderland	16	4	5	7	-1	17
19	Everton	16	4	4	8	+1	16
20	Aston Villa	17	2	4	11	-19	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leicester	17	11	4	2	+15	37
2	Tottenham	16	8	6	2	+14	30
3	Arsenal	17	8	5	4	+9	29
4	Everton	16	5	9	2	+8	24
5	West Ham	16	6	6	4	+4	24
6	Liverpool	16	7	3	6	+3	24
7	Man City	15	6	5	4	+3	23
8	Stoke	17	6	5	6	-7	23
9	Chelsea	16	6	4	6	+2	22
10	Man United	17	6	4	7	-4	22
11	Bournemouth	17	6	4	7	-8	22
12	Crystal Palace	15	5	5	5	-2	20
13	Southampton	16	5	5	6	-2	20
14	Watford	15	5	3	7	-6	18
15	West Brom	16	4	6	6	-6	18
16	Swansea	16	3	5	8	-6	14
17	Sunderland	17	3	4	10	-17	13
18	Norwich	17	3	2	12	-20	11
19	Newcastle	17	2	1	14	-29	7
20	Aston Villa	16	1	3	12	-22	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.