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Premier League

Referee: Craig Pawson

Man United

U S T S U

2–2

Full-time

Aston Villa

S T T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Man United Aston Villa

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,3

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

3,0

3,3

Scored

1,7

1,8

Conceded

1,3

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,3

This season — Premier League · 13/13 matches

Win Ø 31%

31%

Points per game

1,3

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 54%

38%

69%

Both score Ø 62%

62%

Average goals

2,6

3,0

Scored

1,5

Conceded

1,2

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

62% Possession 38%

16 Shots 9

6 Shots on target 3

3 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 5

9 Corners 9

1 Offside 4

16 Free kicks against 8

4 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Man United 11. · Aston Villa 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	14	13	1	0	+20	40
2	Man City	14	9	2	3	+23	29
3	Leicester	13	9	2	2	+23	29
4	Chelsea	14	8	2	4	+8	26
5	Tottenham	14	5	5	4	+3	20
6	Wolves	14	4	8	2	+2	20
7	Sheffield United	14	4	7	3	+4	19
8	Arsenal	14	4	7	3	-1	19
9	Burnley	14	5	3	6	+0	18
10	Crystal Palace	14	5	3	6	-5	18
11	Man United	13	4	5	4	+4	17
12	Bournemouth	14	4	4	6	-2	16
13	West Ham	14	4	4	6	-6	16
14	Newcastle	14	4	4	6	-9	16
15	Brighton	14	4	3	7	-5	15
16	Aston Villa	13	4	2	7	-1	14
17	Everton	13	4	2	7	-7	14
18	Southampton	14	3	3	8	-17	12
19	Norwich	14	3	2	9	-15	11
20	Watford	14	1	5	8	-19	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	7	7	0	0	+12	21
2	Man City	7	5	1	1	+15	16
3	Leicester	6	5	1	0	+11	16
4	Tottenham	7	4	2	1	+7	14
5	Arsenal	7	3	4	0	+3	13
6	Burnley	7	4	0	3	+2	12
7	Man United	6	3	2	1	+6	11
8	Aston Villa	7	3	2	2	+3	11
9	Chelsea	7	3	2	2	+3	11
10	Brighton	7	3	2	2	+2	11
11	Sheffield United	7	3	1	3	+2	10
12	Newcastle	7	2	4	1	+1	10
13	Wolves	7	2	4	1	+0	10
14	Everton	7	3	1	3	-2	10
15	Bournemouth	7	2	3	2	+0	9
16	Crystal Palace	7	2	2	3	-2	8
17	West Ham	7	2	1	4	-4	7
18	Norwich	7	2	1	4	-6	7
19	Southampton	7	1	1	5	-15	4
20	Watford	7	0	3	4	-9	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	7	6	1	0	+8	19
2	Chelsea	7	5	0	2	+5	15
3	Leicester	7	4	1	2	+12	13
4	Man City	7	4	1	2	+8	13
5	Wolves	7	2	4	1	+2	10
6	Crystal Palace	7	3	1	3	-3	10
7	Sheffield United	7	1	6	0	+2	9
8	West Ham	7	2	3	2	-2	9
9	Southampton	7	2	2	3	-2	8
10	Bournemouth	7	2	1	4	-2	7
11	Burnley	7	1	3	3	-2	6
12	Man United	7	1	3	3	-2	6
13	Tottenham	7	1	3	3	-4	6
14	Arsenal	7	1	3	3	-4	6
15	Newcastle	7	2	0	5	-10	6
16	Watford	7	1	2	4	-10	5
17	Everton	6	1	1	4	-5	4
18	Brighton	7	1	1	5	-7	4
19	Norwich	7	1	1	5	-9	4
20	Aston Villa	6	1	0	5	-4	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.