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Championship

Referee: A Davies

Millwall

U S S T S

2–1

Full-time

Stoke

S U S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Millwall Stoke

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,8

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

17%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

1,8

2,0

Scored

1,0

Conceded

0,8

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+0,0

This season — Championship · 13/13 matches

Win Ø 39%

31%

46%

Points per game

1,4

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 39%

31%

46%

Both score Ø 62%

69%

54%

Average goals

2,1

2,3

Scored

1,0

1,2

Conceded

1,1

Goal diff per game

-0,1

+0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

42% Possession 58%

8 Shots 14

4 Shots on target 3

0 Blocked shots 6

2 Goalkeeper saves 2

0 Corners 10

1 Offside 1

9 Free kicks against 13

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Millwall 14. · Stoke 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bournemouth	14	9	5	0	+13	32
2	West Brom	14	8	4	2	+12	28
3	Fulham	13	8	2	3	+15	26
4	Coventry	14	8	2	4	+6	26
5	Middlesbrough	15	7	3	5	+6	24
6	Reading	14	7	1	6	+0	22
7	QPR	14	6	3	5	+3	21
8	Stoke	13	6	3	4	+2	21
9	Luton	13	5	5	3	+7	20
10	Huddersfield	11	6	2	3	+6	20
11	Bristol City	14	5	4	5	-1	19
12	Sheffield United	14	5	3	6	+2	18
13	Preston	14	4	6	4	-1	18
14	Millwall	13	4	6	3	-1	18
15	Blackpool	13	5	3	5	-3	18
16	Blackburn	13	4	5	4	+4	17
17	Swansea	13	4	5	4	-1	17
18	Derby	14	3	7	4	-2	16
19	Nott'm Forest	12	4	2	6	+0	14
20	Peterboro	14	4	2	8	-11	14
21	Birmingham	14	3	4	7	-9	13
22	Cardiff	15	3	3	9	-14	12
23	Peterborough	13	3	2	8	-12	11
24	Hull	14	2	3	9	-11	9
25	Barnsley	13	1	5	7	-10	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Coventry	7	7	0	0	+14	21
2	Fulham	7	5	1	1	+11	16
3	Middlesbrough	8	5	1	2	+7	16
4	Reading	8	5	1	2	+5	16
5	Stoke	7	5	1	1	+5	16
6	Preston	8	4	3	1	+2	15
7	West Brom	6	4	2	0	+7	14
8	Bournemouth	6	4	2	0	+6	14
9	QPR	7	4	2	1	+5	14
10	Sheffield United	8	4	1	3	+7	13
11	Huddersfield	6	4	1	1	+4	13
12	Swansea	7	3	3	1	+3	12
13	Luton	6	3	2	1	+6	11
14	Blackburn	6	3	2	1	+6	11
15	Peterboro	7	3	2	2	+3	11
16	Derby	7	2	5	0	+2	11
17	Blackpool	6	3	0	3	-3	9
18	Peterborough	6	2	2	2	+2	8
19	Millwall	6	2	2	2	-1	8
20	Barnsley	6	1	2	3	-3	5
21	Hull	8	1	2	5	-6	5
22	Birmingham	6	1	2	3	-6	5
23	Nott'm Forest	6	1	1	4	-4	4
24	Bristol City	7	0	4	3	-4	4
25	Cardiff	7	1	1	5	-7	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bournemouth	8	5	3	0	+7	18
2	Bristol City	7	5	0	2	+3	15
3	West Brom	8	4	2	2	+5	14
4	Fulham	6	3	1	2	+4	10
5	Nott'm Forest	6	3	1	2	+4	10
6	Millwall	7	2	4	1	+0	10
7	Luton	7	2	3	2	+1	9
8	Blackpool	7	2	3	2	+0	9
9	Middlesbrough	7	2	2	3	-1	8
10	Birmingham	8	2	2	4	-3	8
11	Cardiff	8	2	2	4	-7	8
12	Huddersfield	5	2	1	2	+2	7
13	QPR	7	2	1	4	-2	7
14	Blackburn	7	1	3	3	-2	6
15	Reading	6	2	0	4	-5	6
16	Stoke	6	1	2	3	-3	5
17	Swansea	6	1	2	3	-4	5
18	Derby	7	1	2	4	-4	5
19	Sheffield United	6	1	2	3	-5	5
20	Coventry	7	1	2	4	-8	5
21	Hull	6	1	1	4	-5	4
22	Preston	6	0	3	3	-3	3
23	Barnsley	7	0	3	4	-7	3
24	Peterboro	7	1	0	6	-14	3
25	Peterborough	7	1	0	6	-14	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.