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Championship

Referee: G Eltringham

Derby

S T S U U

2–2

Full-time

Luton

U U T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Derby Luton

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

17%

67%

Both score Ø 42%

17%

67%

Average goals

0,8

3,7

Scored

0,5

2,3

Conceded

0,3

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+1,0

This season — Championship · 13/12 matches

Win Ø 33%

23%

42%

Points per game

1,2

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 45%

23%

67%

Both score Ø 40%

38%

42%

Average goals

1,4

3,3

Scored

0,6

1,9

Conceded

0,8

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

50% Possession 50%

9 Shots 10

3 Shots on target 3

1 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 1

5 Corners 5

3 Offside 0

12 Free kicks against 14

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Derby 16. · Luton 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bournemouth	13	8	5	0	+12	29
2	West Brom	13	8	4	1	+13	28
3	Coventry	13	8	2	3	+7	26
4	Fulham	12	7	2	3	+13	23
5	Reading	13	7	1	5	+1	22
6	Stoke	12	6	3	3	+3	21
7	Luton	12	5	4	3	+7	19
8	Huddersfield	10	6	1	3	+6	19
9	Bristol City	13	5	4	4	+0	19
10	QPR	12	5	3	4	+3	18
11	Sheffield United	13	5	3	5	+3	18
12	Middlesbrough	13	5	3	5	+2	18
13	Blackburn	12	4	5	3	+5	17
14	Preston	13	3	6	4	-2	15
15	Millwall	12	3	6	3	-2	15
16	Derby	13	3	6	4	-2	15
17	Blackpool	12	4	3	5	-4	15
18	Swansea	12	3	5	4	-2	14
19	Birmingham	13	3	3	7	-9	12
20	Cardiff	13	3	3	7	-10	12
21	Nott'm Forest	11	3	2	6	-1	11
22	Hull	12	2	3	7	-9	9
23	Barnsley	12	1	5	6	-8	8
24	Peterboro	12	2	2	8	-13	8
25	Peterborough	12	2	2	8	-13	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Coventry	7	7	0	0	+14	21
2	Reading	7	5	1	1	+6	16
3	Stoke	6	5	1	0	+6	16
4	West Brom	6	4	2	0	+7	14
5	Bournemouth	6	4	2	0	+6	14
6	Fulham	6	4	1	1	+9	13
7	Sheffield United	7	4	1	2	+8	13
8	Middlesbrough	7	4	1	2	+5	13
9	Huddersfield	5	4	0	1	+4	12
10	Preston	7	3	3	1	+1	12
11	Luton	6	3	2	1	+6	11
12	Blackburn	6	3	2	1	+6	11
13	QPR	6	3	2	1	+4	11
14	Derby	6	2	4	0	+2	10
15	Swansea	6	2	3	1	+2	9
16	Blackpool	6	3	0	3	-3	9
17	Peterboro	6	2	2	2	+2	8
18	Peterborough	6	2	2	2	+2	8
19	Millwall	6	2	2	2	-1	8
20	Barnsley	6	1	2	3	-3	5
21	Hull	6	1	2	3	-4	5
22	Birmingham	6	1	2	3	-6	5
23	Bristol City	6	0	4	2	-3	4
24	Nott'm Forest	6	1	1	4	-4	4
25	Cardiff	6	1	1	4	-5	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bournemouth	7	4	3	0	+6	15
2	Bristol City	7	5	0	2	+3	15
3	West Brom	7	4	2	1	+6	14
4	Fulham	6	3	1	2	+4	10
5	Luton	6	2	2	2	+1	8
6	Cardiff	7	2	2	3	-5	8
7	Nott'm Forest	5	2	1	2	+3	7
8	Huddersfield	5	2	1	2	+2	7
9	QPR	6	2	1	3	-1	7
10	Millwall	6	1	4	1	-1	7
11	Birmingham	7	2	1	4	-3	7
12	Blackpool	6	1	3	2	-1	6
13	Blackburn	6	1	3	2	-1	6
14	Reading	6	2	0	4	-5	6
15	Stoke	6	1	2	3	-3	5
16	Middlesbrough	6	1	2	3	-3	5
17	Swansea	6	1	2	3	-4	5
18	Derby	7	1	2	4	-4	5
19	Sheffield United	6	1	2	3	-5	5
20	Coventry	6	1	2	3	-7	5
21	Hull	6	1	1	4	-5	4
22	Preston	6	0	3	3	-3	3
23	Barnsley	6	0	3	3	-5	3
24	Peterboro	6	0	0	6	-15	0
25	Peterborough	6	0	0	6	-15	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.