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Championship

Referee: S Martin

Millwall

S T U U S

2–3

Full-time

Derby

U U T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Millwall Derby

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,5

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

17%

67%

Both score Ø 58%

33%

83%

Average goals

1,5

3,2

Scored

1,0

1,8

Conceded

0,5

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,5

This season — Championship · 37/37 matches

Win Ø 35%

35%

Points per game

1,5

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 45%

38%

51%

Both score Ø 57%

57%

Average goals

2,3

2,6

Scored

1,2

1,3

Conceded

1,1

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,1

+0,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

37% Possession 63%

12 Shots 12

4 Shots on target 5

5 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 2

6 Corners 3

3 Offside 0

10 Free kicks against 8

0 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Millwall 9. · Derby 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leeds	37	21	8	8	+26	71
2	West Brom	37	19	13	5	+27	70
3	Fulham	36	18	9	9	+13	63
4	Nott'm Forest	37	16	12	9	+10	60
5	Swansea	36	14	14	8	+9	56
6	Preston	37	16	8	13	+5	56
7	Bristol City	37	15	10	12	-2	55
8	Brentford	35	15	9	11	+27	54
9	Millwall	37	13	15	9	+4	54
10	Blackburn	37	14	11	12	+7	53
11	Cardiff	36	13	14	9	+2	53
12	Derby	37	13	12	12	+0	51
13	QPR	37	14	8	15	-4	50
14	Reading	37	13	9	15	+4	48
15	Sheffield Weds	37	13	9	15	-3	48
16	Birmingham	37	12	11	14	-9	47
17	Stoke	37	12	6	19	-6	42
18	Huddersfield	37	11	9	17	-13	42
19	Wigan	37	10	11	16	-12	41
20	Middlesbrough	38	9	14	15	-13	41
21	Hull	37	11	8	18	-14	41
22	Charlton	37	10	9	18	-10	39
23	Luton	37	10	5	22	-28	35
24	Barnsley	37	8	10	19	-20	34

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Fulham	20	12	2	6	+9	38
2	Derby	19	10	7	2	+15	37
3	Leeds	18	11	4	3	+13	37
4	Preston	19	11	3	5	+11	36
5	Blackburn	19	8	8	3	+8	32
6	West Brom	18	8	7	3	+13	31
7	Cardiff	17	8	7	2	+9	31
8	Millwall	18	8	7	3	+7	31
9	Brentford	16	8	5	3	+18	29
10	Swansea	18	8	5	5	+7	29
11	QPR	19	8	5	6	+4	29
12	Nott'm Forest	18	8	4	6	+1	28
13	Stoke	19	8	3	8	+5	27
14	Charlton	19	7	5	7	+2	26
15	Huddersfield	19	7	5	7	-1	26
16	Bristol City	18	7	5	6	-2	26
17	Middlesbrough	20	6	8	6	-4	26
18	Sheffield Weds	18	7	5	6	-5	26
19	Luton	18	7	4	7	+0	25
20	Wigan	18	6	6	6	-4	24
21	Reading	18	7	2	9	-1	23
22	Birmingham	18	6	5	7	-2	23
23	Barnsley	19	5	7	7	-7	22
24	Hull	19	6	3	10	-6	21

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	West Brom	19	11	6	2	+14	39
2	Leeds	19	10	4	5	+13	34
3	Nott'm Forest	19	8	8	3	+9	32
4	Bristol City	19	8	5	6	+0	29
5	Swansea	18	6	9	3	+2	27
6	Brentford	19	7	4	8	+9	25
7	Reading	19	6	7	6	+5	25
8	Fulham	16	6	7	3	+4	25
9	Birmingham	19	6	6	7	-7	24
10	Millwall	19	5	8	6	-3	23
11	Sheffield Weds	19	6	4	9	+2	22
12	Cardiff	19	5	7	7	-7	22
13	Blackburn	18	6	3	9	-1	21
14	QPR	18	6	3	9	-8	21
15	Preston	18	5	5	8	-6	20
16	Hull	18	5	5	8	-8	20
17	Wigan	19	4	5	10	-8	17
18	Huddersfield	18	4	4	10	-12	16
19	Middlesbrough	18	3	6	9	-9	15
20	Stoke	18	4	3	11	-11	15
21	Derby	18	3	5	10	-15	14
22	Charlton	18	3	4	11	-12	13
23	Barnsley	18	3	3	12	-13	12
24	Luton	19	3	1	15	-28	10

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.