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Championship

Referee: R Jones

Barnsley

T T T T T

2–1

Full-time

Derby

U U U U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Barnsley Derby

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 9%

17%

Points per game

0,0

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,7

1,7

Scored

0,7

0,8

Conceded

2,0

0,8

Goal diff per game

-1,3

+0,0

This season — Championship · 15/16 matches

Win Ø 13%

19%

Points per game

0,5

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 32%

33%

31%

Both score Ø 49%

47%

50%

Average goals

2,1

1,7

Scored

0,7

0,8

Conceded

1,5

0,9

Goal diff per game

-0,8

-0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

49% Possession 51%

9 Shots 15

4 Shots on target 5

4 Blocked shots 4

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

7 Corners 8

2 Offside 2

10 Free kicks against 9

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Barnsley 25. · Derby 19. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bournemouth	16	11	5	0	+18	38
2	Fulham	15	10	2	3	+22	32
3	West Brom	16	9	4	3	+12	31
4	Coventry	17	9	3	5	+6	30
5	Luton	16	7	5	4	+8	26
6	Swansea	17	7	5	5	+5	26
7	Huddersfield	15	7	4	4	+4	25
8	Middlesbrough	17	7	3	7	+2	24
9	Blackpool	15	7	3	5	+0	24
10	Millwall	16	6	6	4	+0	24
11	Blackburn	15	6	5	4	+7	23
12	QPR	16	6	4	6	+2	22
13	Stoke	15	6	4	5	+1	22
14	Birmingham	17	6	4	7	-3	22
15	Reading	17	7	1	9	-5	22
16	Bristol City	17	6	4	7	-6	22
17	Sheffield United	16	6	3	7	+2	21
18	Preston	16	5	6	5	-1	21
19	Derby	16	3	8	5	-3	17
20	Nott'm Forest	14	4	3	7	-4	15
21	Peterboro	16	4	3	9	-14	15
22	Peterborough	16	4	3	9	-14	15
23	Cardiff	16	3	4	9	-14	13
24	Hull	16	2	3	11	-13	9
25	Barnsley	15	1	5	9	-12	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Coventry	9	7	1	1	+13	22
2	Fulham	8	6	1	1	+14	19
3	Swansea	9	5	3	1	+9	18
4	Preston	9	5	3	1	+4	18
5	West Brom	7	5	2	0	+10	17
6	Luton	8	5	2	1	+9	17
7	Bournemouth	7	5	2	0	+9	17
8	Stoke	8	5	2	1	+5	17
9	Middlesbrough	9	5	1	3	+5	16
10	Huddersfield	7	5	1	1	+5	16
11	Reading	9	5	1	3	+3	16
12	QPR	8	4	3	1	+5	15
13	Blackburn	7	4	2	1	+8	14
14	Millwall	8	4	2	2	+1	14
15	Sheffield United	9	4	1	4	+6	13
16	Peterboro	8	3	3	2	+3	12
17	Peterborough	8	3	3	2	+3	12
18	Blackpool	7	4	0	3	-1	12
19	Derby	8	2	5	1	+1	11
20	Birmingham	8	3	2	3	-2	11
21	Bristol City	8	1	4	3	-3	7
22	Barnsley	7	1	2	4	-4	5
23	Hull	9	1	2	6	-7	5
24	Cardiff	7	1	1	5	-7	4
25	Nott'm Forest	7	1	1	5	-8	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bournemouth	9	6	3	0	+9	21
2	Bristol City	9	5	0	4	-3	15
3	West Brom	9	4	2	3	+2	14
4	Fulham	7	4	1	2	+8	13
5	Blackpool	8	3	3	2	+1	12
6	Nott'm Forest	7	3	2	2	+4	11
7	Birmingham	9	3	2	4	-1	11
8	Millwall	8	2	4	2	-1	10
9	Luton	8	2	3	3	-1	9
10	Huddersfield	8	2	3	3	-1	9
11	Blackburn	8	2	3	3	-1	9
12	Cardiff	9	2	3	4	-7	9
13	Middlesbrough	8	2	2	4	-3	8
14	Swansea	8	2	2	4	-4	8
15	Sheffield United	7	2	2	3	-4	8
16	Coventry	8	2	2	4	-7	8
17	QPR	8	2	1	5	-3	7
18	Derby	8	1	3	4	-4	6
19	Reading	8	2	0	6	-8	6
20	Stoke	7	1	2	4	-4	5
21	Hull	7	1	1	5	-6	4
22	Preston	7	0	3	4	-5	3
23	Barnsley	8	0	3	5	-8	3
24	Peterboro	8	1	0	7	-17	3
25	Peterborough	8	1	0	7	-17	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.