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Bundesliga

Referee: S Stegemann

Bayern Munich

S T S S S

2–1

Full-time

Freiburg

S S U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Bayern Munich Freiburg

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 75%

83%

67%

Points per game

2,5

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

100%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

5,2

2,3

Scored

4,2

1,8

Conceded

1,0

0,5

Goal diff per game

+3,2

+1,3

This season — Bundesliga · 10/10 matches

Win Ø 70%

80%

60%

Points per game

2,5

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 70%

90%

50%

Both score Ø 65%

70%

60%

Average goals

4,8

2,4

Scored

3,8

1,7

Conceded

1,0

0,7

Goal diff per game

+2,8

+1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

63% Possession 37%

29 Shots 14

11 Shots on target 4

9 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 9

6 Corners 4

3 Offside 0

5 Free kicks against 13

0 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Bayern Munich 1. · Freiburg 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	10	8	1	1	+28	25
2	Dortmund	10	8	0	2	+12	24
3	Freiburg	10	6	4	0	+10	22
4	Leverkusen	10	5	2	3	+7	17
5	Mainz	11	5	2	4	+4	17
6	Union Berlin	10	4	4	2	+0	16
7	Wolfsburg	10	5	1	4	-1	16
8	RB Leipzig	10	4	3	3	+11	15
9	M'gladbach	11	4	3	4	-1	15
10	Hoffenheim	10	4	2	4	+4	14
11	FC Koln	10	3	4	3	-3	13
12	Hertha	10	4	0	6	-12	12
13	Stuttgart	10	2	4	4	-4	10
14	Bochum	10	3	1	6	-10	10
15	Ein Frankfurt	10	1	6	3	-5	9
16	Augsburg	10	2	3	5	-10	9
17	Bielefeld	10	0	5	5	-10	5
18	Greuther Furth	10	0	1	9	-20	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Dortmund	6	6	0	0	+11	18
2	Bayern Munich	5	4	0	1	+16	12
3	RB Leipzig	5	4	0	1	+13	12
4	Freiburg	5	3	2	0	+6	11
5	Mainz	6	3	2	1	+6	11
6	FC Koln	5	3	2	0	+5	11
7	M'gladbach	5	3	2	0	+4	11
8	Union Berlin	6	3	2	1	+1	11
9	Hoffenheim	5	3	1	1	+7	10
10	Stuttgart	5	2	1	2	+3	7
11	Bochum	4	2	1	1	+2	7
12	Wolfsburg	5	2	1	2	-2	7
13	Augsburg	5	2	1	2	-3	7
14	Hertha	4	2	0	2	+0	6
15	Leverkusen	5	2	0	3	-2	6
16	Ein Frankfurt	5	0	4	1	-1	4
17	Bielefeld	6	0	3	3	-7	3
18	Greuther Furth	4	0	1	3	-5	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	5	4	1	0	+12	13
2	Leverkusen	5	3	2	0	+9	11
3	Freiburg	5	3	2	0	+4	11
4	Wolfsburg	5	3	0	2	+1	9
5	Dortmund	4	2	0	2	+1	6
6	Mainz	5	2	0	3	-2	6
7	Hertha	6	2	0	4	-12	6
8	Union Berlin	4	1	2	1	-1	5
9	Ein Frankfurt	5	1	2	2	-4	5
10	Hoffenheim	5	1	1	3	-3	4
11	M'gladbach	6	1	1	4	-5	4
12	RB Leipzig	5	0	3	2	-2	3
13	Stuttgart	5	0	3	2	-7	3
14	Bochum	6	1	0	5	-12	3
15	Bielefeld	4	0	2	2	-3	2
16	Augsburg	5	0	2	3	-7	2
17	FC Koln	5	0	2	3	-8	2
18	Greuther Furth	6	0	0	6	-15	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.