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Serie A
Referee: D Orsato
Spezia
T S T U T
1–0
Full-time
Torino
T T S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Spezia Torino
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 25%
17%
33%
Points per game
0,7
1,2
Over 2.5 Ø 58%
83%
33%
Both score Ø 50%
67%
33%
Average goals
3,0
2,2
Scored
0,8
1,2
Conceded
2,2
1,0
Goal diff per game
-1,3
+0,2
This season — Serie A · 11/11 matches
Win Ø 27%
18%
36%
Points per game
0,7
1,3
Over 2.5 Ø 64%
82%
45%
Both score Ø 59%
73%
45%
Average goals
3,5
2,4
Scored
1,1
1,4
Conceded
2,4
1,0
Goal diff per game
-1,3
+0,4
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

41% Possession 59%
7 Shots 9
3 Shots on target 1
1 Blocked shots 4
1 Goalkeeper saves 2
2 Corners 3
3 Offside 2
15 Free kicks against 17
3 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Spezia 18. · Torino 12.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Napoli 11 10 1 0 +20 31
2 Milan 11 10 1 0 +15 31
3 Inter 11 7 3 1 +16 24
4 Roma 11 6 1 4 +7 19
5 Atalanta 11 5 4 2 +6 19
6 Lazio 11 5 3 3 +3 18
7 Fiorentina 11 6 0 5 +3 18
8 Empoli 12 5 1 6 -5 16
9 Verona 11 4 3 4 +4 15
10 Juventus 11 4 3 4 +0 15
11 Bologna 11 4 3 4 -5 15
12 Torino 11 4 2 5 +4 14
13 Sassuolo 11 4 2 5 +0 14
14 Udinese 11 2 5 4 -4 11
15 Genoa 12 1 6 5 -7 9
16 Sampdoria 11 2 3 6 -9 9
17 Venezia 11 2 3 6 -9 9
18 Spezia 11 2 2 7 -14 8
19 Salernitana 11 2 1 8 -13 7
20 Cagliari 11 1 3 7 -12 6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Spezia Torino
21′
ℹ️ Andrea Belotti
VAR: Penalty cancelled
38′
🟨 Tomás Rincón
Half-time 0–0
52′
🟨 Karol Linetty
57′
🔁 M. Pjaca
↦ K. Linetty
57′
🔁 D. Baselli
↦ T. Rincón
58′
🔁 A. Sanabria
↦ A. Belotti
1–0 J. Sala
V. Kovalenko
58′
Kelvin Amian 🟨
65′
E. Salcedo 🔁
↦ J. Sala
71′
74′
🔁 S. Zaza
↦ W. Singo
Dimitris Nikolaou 🟨
76′
76′
🟨 Antonio Sanabria
R. Manaj 🔁
↦ D. Verde
80′
84′
🔁 A. Izzo
↦ K. Djidji
Viktor Kovalenko 🟨
89′
Salvador Ferrer 🔁
↦ V. Kovalenko
92′
Full-time 1–0

Line-ups

Spezia

4-2-3-1
94 I. Provedel G
7 J. Sala M
43 D. Nikolaou D
20 S. Bastoni D
27 K. Amian D
28 M. Erlić D
8 V. Kovalenko M
25 G. Maggiore M
18 M'Bala Nzola F
11 E. Gyasi M
10 D. Verde M
Bench (10)
29 E. Salcedo
9 R. Manaj
21 Salvador Ferrer
22 J. Antiste
44 D. Strelec
1 J. Zoet
14 J. Kiwior
19 E. Colley
17 S. Podgoreanu
40 P. Zovko

Coach: T. Motta

Torino

3-4-2-1
32 V. Savić G
13 R. Rodríguez D
26 K. Djidji D
34 O. Aina M
3 Bremer D
17 W. Singo M
88 T. Rincón M
22 D. Praet F
77 K. Linetty F
10 S. Lukić M
9 A. Belotti F
Bench (12)
11 M. Pjaca
8 D. Baselli
19 A. Sanabria
7 S. Zaza
5 A. Izzo
1 E. Berisha
24 S. Verdi
70 M. Warming
99 A. Buongiorno
6 D. Zima
25 B. Kone
27 M. Vojvoda

Coach: I. Juric

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
3,56
U
3,56
B
2,07
Over/under goals
U1,5 ✓
O2,5
1,77
U2,5 ✓
2,07
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

D Orsato · 98 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,8 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
24,7 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,17 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.