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Championship

Referee: J Smith

Preston

U U U U T

0–0

Full-time

Derby

U S T S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Preston Derby

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

0,8

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

33%

17%

Both score Ø 42%

67%

17%

Average goals

2,2

1,2

Scored

1,0

0,5

Conceded

1,2

0,7

Goal diff per game

-0,2

This season — Championship · 12/12 matches

Win Ø 25%

25%

Points per game

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

42%

25%

Both score Ø 50%

58%

42%

Average goals

2,3

1,5

Scored

1,1

0,7

Conceded

1,3

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

38% Possession 62%

8 Shots 17

3 Shots on target 5

2 Blocked shots 7

5 Goalkeeper saves 3

4 Corners 10

0 Offside 1

13 Free kicks against 7

2 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Preston 16. · Derby 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	West Brom	13	8	4	1	+13	28
2	Bournemouth	12	7	5	0	+10	26
3	Coventry	12	8	1	3	+7	25
4	Fulham	12	7	2	3	+13	23
5	Stoke	11	6	3	2	+4	21
6	Bristol City	12	5	4	3	+2	19
7	Reading	12	6	1	5	+0	19
8	QPR	12	5	3	4	+3	18
9	Luton	11	4	4	3	+5	16
10	Blackburn	11	4	4	3	+5	16
11	Huddersfield	9	5	1	3	+4	16
12	Sheffield United	12	4	3	5	+2	15
13	Middlesbrough	12	4	3	5	+0	15
14	Millwall	11	3	6	2	+0	15
15	Blackpool	11	4	3	4	-3	15
16	Preston	12	3	5	4	-2	14
17	Derby	12	3	5	4	-2	14
18	Cardiff	12	3	3	6	-7	12
19	Birmingham	13	3	3	7	-9	12
20	Swansea	11	2	5	4	-5	11
21	Hull	11	2	3	6	-7	9
22	Nott'm Forest	10	2	2	6	-2	8
23	Barnsley	11	1	5	5	-7	8
24	Peterborough	11	2	2	7	-11	8
25	Peterboro	12	2	2	8	-13	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Coventry	7	7	0	0	+14	21
2	Stoke	6	5	1	0	+6	16
3	West Brom	6	4	2	0	+7	14
4	Bournemouth	6	4	2	0	+6	14
5	Fulham	6	4	1	1	+9	13
6	Reading	6	4	1	1	+5	13
7	Luton	6	3	2	1	+6	11
8	QPR	6	3	2	1	+4	11
9	Preston	6	3	2	1	+1	11
10	Sheffield United	6	3	1	2	+7	10
11	Blackburn	5	3	1	1	+6	10
12	Middlesbrough	6	3	1	2	+3	10
13	Derby	6	2	4	0	+2	10
14	Huddersfield	4	3	0	1	+2	9
15	Blackpool	6	3	0	3	-3	9
16	Peterboro	6	2	2	2	+2	8
17	Peterborough	6	2	2	2	+2	8
18	Millwall	5	2	2	1	+1	8
19	Swansea	5	1	3	1	-1	6
20	Barnsley	6	1	2	3	-3	5
21	Hull	6	1	2	3	-4	5
22	Birmingham	6	1	2	3	-6	5
23	Bristol City	5	0	4	1	-1	4
24	Cardiff	6	1	1	4	-5	4
25	Nott'm Forest	5	0	1	4	-5	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bristol City	7	5	0	2	+3	15
2	West Brom	7	4	2	1	+6	14
3	Bournemouth	6	3	3	0	+4	12
4	Fulham	6	3	1	2	+4	10
5	Cardiff	6	2	2	2	-2	8
6	Nott'm Forest	5	2	1	2	+3	7
7	Huddersfield	5	2	1	2	+2	7
8	QPR	6	2	1	3	-1	7
9	Millwall	6	1	4	1	-1	7
10	Birmingham	7	2	1	4	-3	7
11	Blackpool	5	1	3	1	+0	6
12	Blackburn	6	1	3	2	-1	6
13	Reading	6	2	0	4	-5	6
14	Luton	5	1	2	2	-1	5
15	Stoke	5	1	2	2	-2	5
16	Middlesbrough	6	1	2	3	-3	5
17	Swansea	6	1	2	3	-4	5
18	Sheffield United	6	1	2	3	-5	5
19	Hull	5	1	1	3	-3	4
20	Derby	6	1	1	4	-4	4
21	Coventry	5	1	1	3	-7	4
22	Preston	6	0	3	3	-3	3
23	Barnsley	5	0	3	2	-4	3
24	Peterborough	5	0	0	5	-13	0
25	Peterboro	6	0	0	6	-15	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.