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Eredivisie
Referee: K Blom
AZ Alkmaar
S S S S T
4–1
Full-time
Twente
T S U U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

AZ Alkmaar Twente
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
67%
17%
Points per game
2,0
1,2
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
83%
50%
Both score Ø 59%
67%
50%
Average goals
3,7
2,5
Scored
2,2
1,2
Conceded
1,5
1,3
Goal diff per game
+0,7
-0,2
This season — Eredivisie · 25/25 matches
Win Ø 46%
56%
36%
Points per game
2,0
1,4
Over 2.5 Ø 68%
80%
56%
Both score Ø 70%
76%
64%
Average goals
3,8
2,9
Scored
2,3
1,6
Conceded
1,5
1,3
Goal diff per game
+0,8
+0,3
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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–1

61% Possession 39%
11 Shots 11
4 Shots on target 4
3 Blocked shots 3
4 Goalkeeper saves 1
2 Corners 3
3 Offside 1
8 Free kicks against 11
1 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match AZ Alkmaar 3. · Twente 7.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Ajax 24 19 3 2 +57 60
2 PSV Eindhoven 25 16 6 3 +31 54
3 AZ Alkmaar 25 14 7 4 +20 49
4 Vitesse 25 15 3 7 +15 48
5 Feyenoord 23 13 5 5 +26 44
6 Groningen 24 12 5 7 +5 41
7 Twente 25 9 9 7 +7 36
8 Utrecht 22 9 8 5 +8 35
9 Heracles 26 10 5 11 -9 35
10 Heerenveen 26 8 9 9 -2 33
11 For Sittard 25 9 4 12 -9 31
12 Zwolle 25 5 11 9 -7 26
13 Sparta Rotterdam 24 7 5 12 -7 26
14 Waalwijk 25 5 8 12 -14 23
15 VVV Venlo 25 6 4 15 -30 22
16 Willem II 26 5 6 15 -25 21
17 Den Haag 26 2 9 15 -34 15
18 FC Emmen 25 2 7 16 -32 13

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

AZ Alkmaar Twente
1–0 M. Boadu
C. Stengs
4′
1–1 D. Dumić
own goal
22′
1–2 J. Drommel
own goal
34′
36′
🟨 Dario Đumić
40′
A. Guðmundsson 2–2
own goal
Bruno Martins Indi 🟨
43′
Half-time 2–2
46′
🔁 W. Brama
↦ G. Roemeratoe
57′
🟨 Ramiz Zerrouki
61′
🔁 I. Abass
↦ Q. Menig
D. de Wit 🔁
↦ A. Guðmundsson
67′
74′
🔁 L. Ilić
↦ R. Zerrouki
3–2 T. Koopmeiners
J. Karlsson
78′
Z. Aboukhlal 🔁
↦ J. Karlsson
82′
K. Goudmijn 🔁
↦ T. Reijnders
84′
Y. Sugawara 🔁
↦ J. Svensson
84′
Calvin Stengs ℹ️
VAR: Goal cancelled
90′
Full-time 3–2

Line-ups

AZ Alkmaar

4-3-3
1 M. Bizot G
15 B. Martins Indi D
2 J. Svensson D
22 T. Letschert D
5 O. Wijndal D
8 T. Koopmeiners M
24 T. Reijnders M
28 A. Guðmundsson M
11 J. Karlsson F
9 M. Boadu F
7 C. Stengs F
Bench (10)
10 D. de Wit
17 Z. Aboukhlal
21 K. Goudmijn
26 Y. Sugawara
19 J. Duin
20 J. Clasie
16 H. Verhulst
55 B. Reus
18 H. Evjen
27 R. Leeuwin

Coach: P. Jansen

Twente

4-3-3
16 J. Drommel G
43 D. Dumić D
23 T. Ebuehi D
15 K. Pierie D
17 J. Oosterwolde D
20 G. Roemeratoe M
32 J. Bosch M
19 R. Zerrouki M
25 L. Narsingh F
11 Q. Menig F
9 Danilo F
Bench (11)
6 W. Brama
10 I. Abass
8 L. Ilić
37 T. van Leeuwen
22 J. de Lange
38 M. Bruns
40 C. Staring
5 G. Smal
24 N. Markelo
30 E. van der Gouw
39 D. Rots

Coach: R. Jans

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
1,43
U
4,75
B
6,61
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
1,54
U2,5
2,45
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

K Blom · 25 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
2,7 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
20,5 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,24 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.