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Championship

Referee: Craig Pawson

Derby

U S S U S

0–1

Full-time

Leeds

S T T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Derby Leeds

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,3

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

3,0

2,5

Scored

2,3

1,2

Conceded

0,7

1,3

Goal diff per game

+1,7

-0,2

This season — Championship · 43/44 matches

Win Ø 50%

47%

52%

Points per game

1,7

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 49%

47%

50%

Both score Ø 58%

60%

55%

Average goals

2,6

Scored

1,6

1,5

Conceded

1,0

1,1

Goal diff per game

+0,6

+0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

44% Possession 56%

7 Shots 12

0 Shots on target 3

4 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 0

1 Corners 8

0 Offside 7

12 Free kicks against 15

4 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Derby 6. · Leeds 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	46	27	13	6	+36	94
2	Sheffield United	46	26	11	9	+37	89
3	Leeds	44	23	8	13	+18	77
4	West Brom	45	22	10	13	+22	76
5	Aston Villa	44	20	15	9	+20	75
6	Derby	43	20	14	9	+24	74
7	Middlesbrough	46	20	13	13	+8	73
8	Bristol City	46	19	13	14	+6	70
9	Nott'm Forest	46	17	15	14	+7	66
10	Swansea	46	18	11	17	+3	65
11	Brentford	46	17	13	16	+14	64
12	Sheffield Weds	46	16	16	14	-2	64
13	Hull	46	17	11	18	-2	62
14	Birmingham	46	14	19	13	+6	61
15	Preston	46	16	13	17	+0	61
16	Blackburn	46	16	12	18	-5	60
17	Stoke	46	11	22	13	-7	55
18	Wigan	46	13	13	20	-13	52
19	QPR	46	14	9	23	-18	51
20	Reading	46	10	17	19	-17	47
21	Millwall	46	10	14	22	-16	44
22	Rotherham	46	8	16	22	-31	40
23	Bolton	46	8	8	30	-49	32
24	Ipswich	46	5	16	25	-41	31

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sheffield United	23	15	4	4	+25	49
2	Norwich	23	15	4	4	+17	49
3	Brentford	23	14	4	5	+27	46
4	Derby	22	13	7	2	+23	46
5	Leeds	22	13	4	5	+15	43
6	Nott'm Forest	23	13	4	6	+13	43
7	West Brom	22	12	6	4	+22	42
8	Swansea	23	12	6	5	+14	42
9	Aston Villa	22	11	8	3	+13	41
10	Wigan	23	11	8	4	+9	41
11	Hull	23	11	6	6	+13	39
12	Sheffield Weds	23	10	8	5	+7	38
13	Blackburn	23	10	7	6	+11	37
14	Middlesbrough	23	10	6	7	+6	36
15	Preston	23	8	10	5	+11	34
16	Stoke	23	8	9	6	+2	33
17	Birmingham	23	7	11	5	+7	32
18	Bristol City	23	8	8	7	+2	32
19	QPR	23	9	3	11	+2	30
20	Millwall	23	7	9	7	-1	30
21	Reading	23	8	6	9	-2	30
22	Rotherham	23	7	8	8	-6	29
23	Ipswich	23	3	11	9	-9	20
24	Bolton	23	4	4	15	-22	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	23	12	9	2	+19	45
2	Sheffield United	23	11	7	5	+12	40
3	Bristol City	23	11	5	7	+4	38
4	Middlesbrough	23	10	7	6	+2	37
5	Aston Villa	22	9	7	6	+7	34
6	Leeds	22	10	4	8	+3	34
7	West Brom	23	10	4	9	+0	34
8	Birmingham	23	7	8	8	-1	29
9	Derby	21	7	7	7	+1	28
10	Preston	23	8	3	12	-11	27
11	Sheffield Weds	23	6	8	9	-9	26
12	Nott'm Forest	23	4	11	8	-6	23
13	Swansea	23	6	5	12	-11	23
14	Hull	23	6	5	12	-15	23
15	Blackburn	23	6	5	12	-16	23
16	Stoke	23	3	13	7	-9	22
17	QPR	23	5	6	12	-20	21
18	Brentford	23	3	9	11	-13	18
19	Reading	23	2	11	10	-15	17
20	Bolton	23	4	4	15	-27	16
21	Millwall	23	3	5	15	-15	14
22	Wigan	23	2	5	16	-22	11
23	Rotherham	23	1	8	14	-25	11
24	Ipswich	23	2	5	16	-32	11

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.