Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.
The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.
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Hammarby
Sundsvall
Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.
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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.
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| # | Team | K | V | U | T | +/− | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Djurgarden
|
19 | 12 | 5 | 2 | +21 | 41 |
| 2 |
AIK
|
19 | 12 | 4 | 3 | +15 | 40 |
| 3 |
Malmo FF
|
19 | 10 | 8 | 1 | +17 | 38 |
| 4 |
Hammarby
|
19 | 10 | 5 | 4 | +16 | 35 |
| 5 |
Hacken
|
19 | 10 | 4 | 5 | +13 | 34 |
| 6 |
Goteborg
|
19 | 8 | 8 | 3 | +10 | 32 |
| 7 |
Norrkoping
|
19 | 8 | 7 | 4 | +9 | 31 |
| 8 | Orebro | 19 | 6 | 4 | 9 | -3 | 22 |
| 9 | Ostersunds | 19 | 4 | 9 | 6 | -8 | 21 |
| 10 |
Elfsborg
|
19 | 5 | 6 | 8 | -10 | 21 |
| 11 |
Helsingborg
|
19 | 4 | 6 | 9 | -11 | 18 |
| 12 |
Sirius
|
19 | 5 | 3 | 11 | -14 | 18 |
| 13 | Falkenbergs | 19 | 3 | 7 | 9 | -17 | 16 |
| 14 |
Kalmar
|
19 | 2 | 9 | 8 | -9 | 15 |
| 15 |
AFC Eskilstuna
|
19 | 3 | 5 | 11 | -19 | 14 |
| 16 |
Sundsvall
|
19 | 2 | 6 | 11 | -10 | 12 |
Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.
Green columns are the outcomes that came in.
Hammarby
Helsingborg
Kalmar
Hammarby
AFC Eskilstuna
Hammarby
Hammarby
Elfsborg
Sundsvall
Hammarby
The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.