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Championship

Referee: Anthony Taylor

Leeds

T T U T S

2–4

Full-time

Derby

S S U S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Leeds Derby

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,2

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,3

2,5

Scored

1,0

1,7

Conceded

1,3

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,8

This season — Championship · 45/44 matches

Win Ø 49%

53%

45%

Points per game

1,8

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 47%

49%

45%

Both score Ø 56%

53%

59%

Average goals

2,6

Scored

1,5

Conceded

1,1

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,4

+0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

57% Possession 43%

22 Shots 14

8 Shots on target 5

6 Blocked shots 4

1 Goalkeeper saves 6

3 Corners 3

17 Free kicks against 15

6 Yellow cards 5

1 Red cards 1

The table before the match Leeds 3. · Derby 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	46	27	13	6	+36	94
2	Sheffield United	46	26	11	9	+37	89
3	Leeds	45	24	8	13	+19	80
4	West Brom	46	23	10	13	+24	79
5	Aston Villa	45	20	15	10	+18	75
6	Derby	44	20	14	10	+23	74
7	Middlesbrough	46	20	13	13	+8	73
8	Bristol City	46	19	13	14	+6	70
9	Nott'm Forest	46	17	15	14	+7	66
10	Swansea	46	18	11	17	+3	65
11	Brentford	46	17	13	16	+14	64
12	Sheffield Weds	46	16	16	14	-2	64
13	Hull	46	17	11	18	-2	62
14	Birmingham	46	14	19	13	+6	61
15	Preston	46	16	13	17	+0	61
16	Blackburn	46	16	12	18	-5	60
17	Stoke	46	11	22	13	-7	55
18	Wigan	46	13	13	20	-13	52
19	QPR	46	14	9	23	-18	51
20	Reading	46	10	17	19	-17	47
21	Millwall	46	10	14	22	-16	44
22	Rotherham	46	8	16	22	-31	40
23	Bolton	46	8	8	30	-49	32
24	Ipswich	46	5	16	25	-41	31

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sheffield United	23	15	4	4	+25	49
2	Norwich	23	15	4	4	+17	49
3	Brentford	23	14	4	5	+27	46
4	Derby	23	13	7	3	+22	46
5	West Brom	23	13	6	4	+24	45
6	Leeds	22	13	4	5	+15	43
7	Nott'm Forest	23	13	4	6	+13	43
8	Swansea	23	12	6	5	+14	42
9	Aston Villa	22	11	8	3	+13	41
10	Wigan	23	11	8	4	+9	41
11	Hull	23	11	6	6	+13	39
12	Sheffield Weds	23	10	8	5	+7	38
13	Blackburn	23	10	7	6	+11	37
14	Middlesbrough	23	10	6	7	+6	36
15	Preston	23	8	10	5	+11	34
16	Stoke	23	8	9	6	+2	33
17	Birmingham	23	7	11	5	+7	32
18	Bristol City	23	8	8	7	+2	32
19	QPR	23	9	3	11	+2	30
20	Millwall	23	7	9	7	-1	30
21	Reading	23	8	6	9	-2	30
22	Rotherham	23	7	8	8	-6	29
23	Ipswich	23	3	11	9	-9	20
24	Bolton	23	4	4	15	-22	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	23	12	9	2	+19	45
2	Sheffield United	23	11	7	5	+12	40
3	Bristol City	23	11	5	7	+4	38
4	Leeds	23	11	4	8	+4	37
5	Middlesbrough	23	10	7	6	+2	37
6	Aston Villa	23	9	7	7	+5	34
7	West Brom	23	10	4	9	+0	34
8	Birmingham	23	7	8	8	-1	29
9	Derby	21	7	7	7	+1	28
10	Preston	23	8	3	12	-11	27
11	Sheffield Weds	23	6	8	9	-9	26
12	Nott'm Forest	23	4	11	8	-6	23
13	Swansea	23	6	5	12	-11	23
14	Hull	23	6	5	12	-15	23
15	Blackburn	23	6	5	12	-16	23
16	Stoke	23	3	13	7	-9	22
17	QPR	23	5	6	12	-20	21
18	Brentford	23	3	9	11	-13	18
19	Reading	23	2	11	10	-15	17
20	Bolton	23	4	4	15	-27	16
21	Millwall	23	3	5	15	-15	14
22	Wigan	23	2	5	16	-22	11
23	Rotherham	23	1	8	14	-25	11
24	Ipswich	23	2	5	16	-32	11

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.