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Premier League

Referee: Martin Atkinson

Aston Villa

T S T S T

1–2

Full-time

Bournemouth

T U S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Aston Villa Bournemouth

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,2

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

2,8

3,8

Scored

1,2

2,2

Conceded

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,5

This season — Premier League · 1/1 matches

Win Ø 0%

Points per game

0,0

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

100%

Both score Ø 100%

100%

Average goals

4,0

2,0

Scored

1,0

Conceded

3,0

1,0

Goal diff per game

-2,0

+0,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

62% Possession 38%

22 Shots 12

7 Shots on target 4

5 Blocked shots 4

2 Goalkeeper saves 6

10 Corners 5

5 Offside 2

10 Free kicks against 13

0 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Aston Villa 15. · Bournemouth 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Arsenal	2	2	0	0	+2	6
2	Man City	1	1	0	0	+5	3
3	Man United	1	1	0	0	+4	3
4	Liverpool	1	1	0	0	+3	3
5	Brighton	1	1	0	0	+3	3
6	Burnley	2	1	0	1	+2	3
7	Tottenham	1	1	0	0	+2	3
8	Bournemouth	1	0	1	0	+0	1
9	Sheffield United	1	0	1	0	+0	1
10	Crystal Palace	1	0	1	0	+0	1
11	Everton	1	0	1	0	+0	1
12	Leicester	1	0	1	0	+0	1
13	Wolves	1	0	1	0	+0	1
14	Newcastle	1	0	0	1	-1	0
15	Aston Villa	1	0	0	1	-2	0
16	Norwich	1	0	0	1	-3	0
17	Southampton	1	0	0	1	-3	0
18	Watford	1	0	0	1	-3	0
19	Chelsea	1	0	0	1	-4	0
20	West Ham	1	0	0	1	-5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man United	1	1	0	0	+4	3
2	Liverpool	1	1	0	0	+3	3
3	Burnley	1	1	0	0	+3	3
4	Tottenham	1	1	0	0	+2	3
5	Arsenal	1	1	0	0	+1	3
6	Bournemouth	1	0	1	0	+0	1
7	Crystal Palace	1	0	1	0	+0	1
8	Leicester	1	0	1	0	+0	1
9	Newcastle	1	0	0	1	-1	0
10	Watford	1	0	0	1	-3	0
11	West Ham	1	0	0	1	-5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	1	1	0	0	+5	3
2	Brighton	1	1	0	0	+3	3
3	Arsenal	1	1	0	0	+1	3
4	Sheffield United	1	0	1	0	+0	1
5	Everton	1	0	1	0	+0	1
6	Wolves	1	0	1	0	+0	1
7	Burnley	1	0	0	1	-1	0
8	Aston Villa	1	0	0	1	-2	0
9	Norwich	1	0	0	1	-3	0
10	Southampton	1	0	0	1	-3	0
11	Chelsea	1	0	0	1	-4	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.