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Primeira Liga

Referee: João Pedro Pinheiro

Vitoria Setubal

T U T T U

1–1

Full-time

Benfica

T T S U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Vitoria Setubal Benfica

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,8

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,7

Scored

1,0

1,3

Conceded

1,7

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+0,0

This season — Primeira Liga · 23/25 matches

Win Ø 53%

26%

80%

Points per game

1,2

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 40%

35%

44%

Both score Ø 31%

30%

32%

Average goals

1,8

2,7

Scored

0,7

2,1

Conceded

1,1

0,6

Goal diff per game

-0,4

+1,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

36% Possession 64%

3 Shots 15

2 Shots on target 6

0 Blocked shots 4

5 Goalkeeper saves 1

1 Corners 8

3 Offside 4

13 Free kicks against 12

4 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Vitoria Setubal 13. · Benfica 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	25	21	2	2	+42	65
2	Benfica	25	20	2	3	+39	62
3	Sp Braga	26	15	4	7	+16	49
4	Sp Lisbon	24	13	3	8	+11	42
5	Rio Ave	24	11	7	6	+10	40
6	Famalicao	24	11	6	7	+1	39
7	Guimaraes	24	9	8	7	+14	35
8	Gil Vicente	25	8	9	8	-3	33
9	Santa Clara	24	8	6	10	-7	30
10	Moreirense	25	6	11	8	+0	29
11	Boavista	25	7	8	10	-5	29
12	Setubal	24	6	10	8	-10	28
13	Vitoria Setubal	23	6	9	8	-10	27
14	Tondela	26	6	8	12	-13	26
15	Maritimo	24	5	10	9	-8	25
16	Belenenses	24	7	4	13	-20	25
17	Pacos Ferreira	24	6	4	14	-16	22
18	Portimonense	26	2	12	12	-18	18
19	Aves	24	4	1	19	-23	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	12	11	0	1	+24	33
2	Benfica	13	10	1	2	+22	31
3	Sp Braga	13	8	3	2	+9	27
4	Famalicao	13	7	3	3	+5	24
5	Sp Lisbon	11	7	0	4	+5	21
6	Guimaraes	12	6	2	4	+10	20
7	Rio Ave	13	5	5	3	+5	20
8	Moreirense	12	5	4	3	+3	19
9	Gil Vicente	12	4	6	2	+2	18
10	Setubal	12	3	6	3	-4	15
11	Santa Clara	13	4	3	6	-6	15
12	Maritimo	12	3	5	4	+0	14
13	Pacos Ferreira	13	4	2	7	-4	14
14	Vitoria Setubal	11	3	5	3	-4	14
15	Boavista	12	3	4	5	-2	13
16	Belenenses	12	4	1	7	-11	13
17	Portimonense	12	1	7	4	-4	10
18	Aves	12	3	0	9	-8	9
19	Tondela	13	1	5	7	-11	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	13	10	2	1	+18	32
2	Benfica	12	10	1	1	+17	31
3	Sp Braga	13	7	1	5	+7	22
4	Sp Lisbon	13	6	3	4	+6	21
5	Rio Ave	11	6	2	3	+5	20
6	Tondela	13	5	3	5	-2	18
7	Boavista	13	4	4	5	-3	16
8	Guimaraes	12	3	6	3	+4	15
9	Santa Clara	11	4	3	4	-1	15
10	Famalicao	11	4	3	4	-4	15
11	Gil Vicente	13	4	3	6	-5	15
12	Setubal	12	3	4	5	-6	13
13	Vitoria Setubal	12	3	4	5	-6	13
14	Belenenses	12	3	3	6	-9	12
15	Maritimo	12	2	5	5	-8	11
16	Moreirense	13	1	7	5	-3	10
17	Pacos Ferreira	11	2	2	7	-12	8
18	Portimonense	14	1	5	8	-14	8
19	Aves	12	1	1	10	-15	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.