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Primeira Liga

Referee: Gustavo Correia

Vitoria Setubal

T S S T U

1–2

Full-time

Gil Vicente

U T T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Vitoria Setubal Gil Vicente

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,2

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

2,8

3,0

Scored

1,0

1,3

Conceded

1,8

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,8

-0,3

This season — Primeira Liga · 20/22 matches

Win Ø 29%

30%

27%

Points per game

1,3

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 38%

30%

45%

Both score Ø 40%

25%

55%

Average goals

1,8

2,3

Scored

0,7

1,0

Conceded

1,1

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,4

-0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

62% Possession 38%

7 Shots 7

2 Shots on target 3

1 Blocked shots 1

1 Goalkeeper saves 1

5 Corners 3

3 Offside 1

19 Free kicks against 17

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Vitoria Setubal 11. · Gil Vicente 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	21	19	0	2	+39	57
2	Porto	22	18	2	2	+38	56
3	Sp Lisbon	21	12	2	7	+11	38
4	Rio Ave	21	10	5	6	+9	35
5	Famalicao	21	10	5	6	+0	35
6	Sp Braga	21	10	4	7	+8	34
7	Guimaraes	21	7	8	6	+11	29
8	Boavista	21	7	7	7	-1	28
9	Gil Vicente	22	6	9	7	-4	27
10	Santa Clara	21	7	6	8	-5	27
11	Vitoria Setubal	20	6	8	6	-7	26
12	Setubal	21	6	8	7	-8	26
13	Tondela	22	6	7	9	-9	25
14	Moreirense	22	5	9	8	-1	24
15	Maritimo	21	4	10	7	-9	22
16	Belenenses	21	5	3	13	-22	18
17	Pacos Ferreira	21	4	4	13	-16	16
18	Portimonense	21	2	9	10	-15	15
19	Aves	21	4	0	17	-19	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	11	10	0	1	+23	30
2	Benfica	11	10	0	1	+23	30
3	Famalicao	11	6	2	3	+3	20
4	Rio Ave	11	5	3	3	+5	18
5	Sp Braga	10	5	3	2	+3	18
6	Sp Lisbon	10	6	0	4	+3	18
7	Gil Vicente	11	4	6	1	+3	18
8	Guimaraes	10	5	2	3	+9	17
9	Moreirense	11	4	4	3	+2	16
10	Vitoria Setubal	10	3	5	2	-3	14
11	Setubal	11	3	5	3	-4	14
12	Boavista	10	3	4	3	+0	13
13	Santa Clara	11	3	3	5	-5	12
14	Maritimo	10	2	5	3	-2	11
15	Pacos Ferreira	12	3	2	7	-5	11
16	Belenenses	11	3	1	7	-12	10
17	Aves	10	3	0	7	-4	9
18	Portimonense	9	1	4	4	-4	7
19	Tondela	11	1	4	6	-10	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	10	9	0	1	+16	27
2	Porto	11	8	2	1	+15	26
3	Sp Lisbon	11	6	2	3	+8	20
4	Tondela	11	5	3	3	+1	18
5	Rio Ave	10	5	2	3	+4	17
6	Sp Braga	11	5	1	5	+5	16
7	Santa Clara	10	4	3	3	+0	15
8	Boavista	11	4	3	4	-1	15
9	Famalicao	10	4	3	3	-3	15
10	Guimaraes	11	2	6	3	+2	12
11	Setubal	10	3	3	4	-4	12
12	Vitoria Setubal	10	3	3	4	-4	12
13	Maritimo	11	2	5	4	-7	11
14	Gil Vicente	11	2	3	6	-7	9
15	Moreirense	11	1	5	5	-3	8
16	Belenenses	10	2	2	6	-10	8
17	Portimonense	12	1	5	6	-11	8
18	Pacos Ferreira	9	1	2	6	-11	5
19	Aves	11	1	0	10	-15	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.