Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.
The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.
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Venezia
Crotone
Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.
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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.
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Half-time score: 0–2
| # | Team | K | V | U | T | +/− | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Benevento
|
27 | 20 | 6 | 1 | +35 | 66 |
| 2 |
Frosinone
|
27 | 13 | 8 | 6 | +12 | 47 |
| 3 |
Crotone
|
27 | 14 | 4 | 9 | +12 | 46 |
| 4 | Pordenone | 28 | 13 | 6 | 9 | +3 | 45 |
| 5 |
Spezia
|
27 | 12 | 8 | 7 | +10 | 44 |
| 6 |
Cittadella
|
28 | 12 | 7 | 9 | +3 | 43 |
| 7 |
Salernitana
|
27 | 12 | 6 | 9 | +5 | 42 |
| 8 |
Empoli
|
27 | 10 | 9 | 8 | -1 | 39 |
| 9 |
Chievo
|
27 | 9 | 11 | 7 | +5 | 38 |
| 10 |
Pescara
|
27 | 10 | 5 | 12 | -2 | 35 |
| 11 |
Virtus Entella
|
27 | 9 | 8 | 10 | -4 | 35 |
| 12 |
Pisa
|
27 | 8 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 33 |
| 13 |
Perugia
|
27 | 9 | 6 | 12 | -8 | 33 |
| 14 |
Juve Stabia
|
27 | 9 | 6 | 12 | -10 | 33 |
| 15 |
Ascoli
|
26 | 9 | 5 | 12 | -2 | 32 |
| 16 |
Venezia
|
27 | 7 | 11 | 9 | -5 | 32 |
| 17 |
Cremonese
|
26 | 6 | 9 | 11 | -6 | 27 |
| 18 |
Cosenza
|
27 | 5 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 24 |
| 19 | Trapani | 27 | 5 | 9 | 13 | -21 | 24 |
| 20 | Livorno | 27 | 4 | 6 | 17 | -21 | 18 |
Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.
Green columns are the outcomes that came in.
Salernitana
Venezia
Venezia
Cosenza
Pisa
Venezia
Venezia
Virtus Entella
Venezia
Frosinone
The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.