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Bundesliga

Referee: S Stegemann

M'gladbach

S U S U S

1–2

Full-time

Dortmund

S T S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

M'gladbach Dortmund

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

50%

83%

Points per game

1,8

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 58%

83%

33%

Average goals

3,7

4,2

Scored

2,2

3,3

Conceded

1,5

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+2,5

This season — Bundesliga · 23/24 matches

Win Ø 60%

61%

58%

Points per game

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 74%

65%

83%

Both score Ø 60%

65%

54%

Average goals

3,2

4,1

Scored

2,0

2,8

Conceded

1,2

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,8

+1,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

45% Possession 55%

10 Shots 10

3 Shots on target 4

3 Blocked shots 3

2 Goalkeeper saves 2

3 Corners 3

6 Offside 0

8 Free kicks against 9

5 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match M'gladbach 5. · Dortmund 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	24	16	4	4	+45	52
2	RB Leipzig	25	14	8	3	+36	50
3	Dortmund	24	14	6	4	+34	48
4	Leverkusen	25	14	5	6	+15	47
5	M'gladbach	23	14	4	5	+19	46
6	Schalke 04	25	9	10	6	-3	37
7	Wolfsburg	25	9	9	7	+4	36
8	Freiburg	25	10	6	9	-1	36
9	Hoffenheim	25	10	5	10	-8	35
10	FC Koln	24	10	2	12	-5	32
11	Union Berlin	25	9	3	13	-9	30
12	Ein Frankfurt	24	8	4	12	-3	28
13	Hertha	25	7	7	11	-16	28
14	Augsburg	24	7	6	11	-14	27
15	Mainz	24	8	1	15	-19	25
16	Fortuna Dusseldorf	24	5	6	13	-23	21
17	Werder Bremen	24	4	6	14	-28	18
18	Paderborn	25	4	4	17	-24	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Dortmund	12	9	3	0	+31	30
2	Bayern Munich	12	8	2	2	+25	26
3	M'gladbach	11	8	2	1	+14	26
4	RB Leipzig	12	7	4	1	+19	25
5	Leverkusen	13	7	4	2	+12	25
6	Ein Frankfurt	12	6	3	3	+11	21
7	Schalke 04	13	5	6	2	+0	21
8	Freiburg	12	6	2	4	+2	20
9	FC Koln	12	6	1	5	+4	19
10	Union Berlin	12	6	1	5	+2	19
11	Augsburg	12	5	3	4	+3	18
12	Wolfsburg	13	4	6	3	+3	18
13	Hoffenheim	13	5	1	7	-12	16
14	Mainz	12	4	1	7	-6	13
15	Fortuna Dusseldorf	12	3	3	6	-10	12
16	Hertha	13	3	3	7	-14	12
17	Paderborn	13	2	1	10	-14	7
18	Werder Bremen	11	1	2	8	-18	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	12	8	2	2	+20	26
2	RB Leipzig	13	7	4	2	+17	25
3	Leverkusen	12	7	1	4	+3	22
4	M'gladbach	12	6	2	4	+5	20
5	Hoffenheim	12	5	4	3	+4	19
6	Dortmund	12	5	3	4	+3	18
7	Wolfsburg	12	5	3	4	+1	18
8	Hertha	12	4	4	4	-2	16
9	Freiburg	13	4	4	5	-3	16
10	Schalke 04	12	4	4	4	-3	16
11	FC Koln	12	4	1	7	-9	13
12	Werder Bremen	13	3	4	6	-10	13
13	Mainz	12	4	0	8	-13	12
14	Union Berlin	13	3	2	8	-11	11
15	Paderborn	12	2	3	7	-10	9
16	Fortuna Dusseldorf	12	2	3	7	-13	9
17	Augsburg	12	2	3	7	-17	9
18	Ein Frankfurt	12	2	1	9	-14	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.