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Primeira Liga

Referee: Hélder Malheiro

Sp Braga

S S U S S

3–1

Full-time

Vitoria Setubal

S S T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sp Braga Vitoria Setubal

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 58%

83%

33%

Points per game

2,7

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

2,7

2,8

Scored

1,8

1,2

Conceded

0,8

1,7

Goal diff per game

+1,0

-0,5

This season — Primeira Liga · 23/21 matches

Win Ø 41%

52%

29%

Points per game

1,7

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 41%

48%

33%

Both score Ø 39%

48%

29%

Average goals

2,7

1,8

Scored

1,6

0,7

Conceded

1,1

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

66% Possession 34%

24 Shots 6

7 Shots on target 4

9 Blocked shots 0

3 Goalkeeper saves 4

12 Corners 4

1 Offside 7

15 Free kicks against 11

3 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Sp Braga 4. · Vitoria Setubal 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	23	19	2	2	+39	59
2	Benfica	22	19	0	3	+38	57
3	Sp Lisbon	23	13	3	7	+13	42
4	Sp Braga	23	12	4	7	+11	40
5	Rio Ave	23	11	6	6	+10	39
6	Famalicao	23	10	6	7	-1	36
7	Guimaraes	23	8	8	7	+12	32
8	Gil Vicente	23	7	9	7	-3	30
9	Santa Clara	23	8	6	9	-5	30
10	Moreirense	24	6	10	8	+0	28
11	Boavista	23	7	7	9	-4	28
12	Vitoria Setubal	21	6	8	7	-8	26
13	Setubal	22	6	8	8	-10	26
14	Maritimo	23	5	10	8	-7	25
15	Tondela	24	6	7	11	-11	25
16	Belenenses	23	7	3	13	-20	24
17	Pacos Ferreira	23	5	4	14	-18	19
18	Portimonense	22	2	10	10	-15	16
19	Aves	23	4	1	18	-21	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	11	10	0	1	+23	30
2	Benfica	12	10	0	2	+22	30
3	Sp Braga	11	6	3	2	+5	21
4	Sp Lisbon	11	7	0	4	+5	21
5	Famalicao	12	6	3	3	+3	21
6	Rio Ave	12	5	4	3	+5	19
7	Moreirense	12	5	4	3	+3	19
8	Gil Vicente	11	4	6	1	+3	18
9	Guimaraes	11	5	2	4	+8	17
10	Santa Clara	12	4	3	5	-4	15
11	Maritimo	11	3	5	3	+1	14
12	Pacos Ferreira	13	4	2	7	-4	14
13	Setubal	11	3	5	3	-4	14
14	Vitoria Setubal	11	3	5	3	-4	14
15	Boavista	11	3	4	4	-1	13
16	Belenenses	12	4	1	7	-11	13
17	Aves	11	3	0	8	-6	9
18	Portimonense	10	1	5	4	-4	8
19	Tondela	12	1	4	7	-11	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	12	9	2	1	+16	29
2	Benfica	10	9	0	1	+16	27
3	Sp Lisbon	12	6	3	3	+8	21
4	Rio Ave	11	6	2	3	+5	20
5	Sp Braga	12	6	1	5	+6	19
6	Tondela	12	5	3	4	+0	18
7	Guimaraes	12	3	6	3	+4	15
8	Santa Clara	11	4	3	4	-1	15
9	Boavista	12	4	3	5	-3	15
10	Famalicao	11	4	3	4	-4	15
11	Vitoria Setubal	10	3	3	4	-4	12
12	Gil Vicente	12	3	3	6	-6	12
13	Setubal	11	3	3	5	-6	12
14	Maritimo	12	2	5	5	-8	11
15	Belenenses	11	3	2	6	-9	11
16	Moreirense	12	1	6	5	-3	9
17	Portimonense	12	1	5	6	-11	8
18	Pacos Ferreira	10	1	2	7	-14	5
19	Aves	12	1	1	10	-15	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.