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Primeira Liga

Referee: Artur Soares Dias

Porto

S T S S S

3–2

Full-time

Benfica

S S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Porto Benfica

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 92%

83%

100%

Points per game

2,5

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

100%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

3,8

2,8

Scored

2,8

2,3

Conceded

1,0

0,5

Goal diff per game

+1,8

This season — Primeira Liga · 21/20 matches

Win Ø 88%

81%

95%

Points per game

2,5

2,9

Over 2.5 Ø 56%

62%

50%

Both score Ø 32%

38%

25%

Average goals

2,9

2,8

Scored

2,3

2,4

Conceded

0,6

0,4

Goal diff per game

+1,8

+2,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–1

43% Possession 57%

17 Shots 9

4 Shots on target 3

5 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 2

4 Corners 4

12 Free kicks against 19

4 Yellow cards 6

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Porto 2. · Benfica 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	20	19	0	1	+40	57
2	Porto	21	17	2	2	+37	53
3	Sp Lisbon	20	11	2	7	+10	35
4	Famalicao	21	10	5	6	+0	35
5	Sp Braga	21	10	4	7	+8	34
6	Rio Ave	20	9	5	6	+5	32
7	Guimaraes	21	7	8	6	+11	29
8	Boavista	21	7	7	7	-1	28
9	Santa Clara	21	7	6	8	-5	27
10	Setubal	19	6	7	6	-7	25
11	Vitoria Setubal	19	6	7	6	-7	25
12	Gil Vicente	21	5	9	7	-5	24
13	Tondela	21	6	6	9	-9	24
14	Moreirense	20	5	7	8	-1	22
15	Maritimo	20	4	9	7	-9	21
16	Belenenses	21	5	3	13	-22	18
17	Pacos Ferreira	21	4	4	13	-16	16
18	Portimonense	20	2	9	9	-14	15
19	Aves	20	4	0	16	-15	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	11	10	0	1	+23	30
2	Porto	10	9	0	1	+22	27
3	Famalicao	11	6	2	3	+3	20
4	Rio Ave	11	5	3	3	+5	18
5	Sp Braga	10	5	3	2	+3	18
6	Gil Vicente	11	4	6	1	+3	18
7	Guimaraes	10	5	2	3	+9	17
8	Sp Lisbon	9	5	0	4	+2	15
9	Moreirense	9	4	2	3	+2	14
10	Setubal	10	3	5	2	-3	14
11	Vitoria Setubal	10	3	5	2	-3	14
12	Boavista	10	3	4	3	+0	13
13	Santa Clara	11	3	3	5	-5	12
14	Maritimo	10	2	5	3	-2	11
15	Pacos Ferreira	12	3	2	7	-5	11
16	Belenenses	11	3	1	7	-12	10
17	Aves	9	3	0	6	+0	9
18	Portimonense	9	1	4	4	-4	7
19	Tondela	10	1	3	6	-10	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	9	9	0	0	+17	27
2	Porto	11	8	2	1	+15	26
3	Sp Lisbon	11	6	2	3	+8	20
4	Tondela	11	5	3	3	+1	18
5	Sp Braga	11	5	1	5	+5	16
6	Santa Clara	10	4	3	3	+0	15
7	Boavista	11	4	3	4	-1	15
8	Famalicao	10	4	3	3	-3	15
9	Rio Ave	9	4	2	3	+0	14
10	Guimaraes	11	2	6	3	+2	12
11	Setubal	9	3	2	4	-4	11
12	Vitoria Setubal	9	3	2	4	-4	11
13	Maritimo	10	2	4	4	-7	10
14	Moreirense	11	1	5	5	-3	8
15	Belenenses	10	2	2	6	-10	8
16	Portimonense	11	1	5	5	-10	8
17	Gil Vicente	10	1	3	6	-8	6
18	Pacos Ferreira	9	1	2	6	-11	5
19	Aves	11	1	0	10	-15	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.