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Bundesliga

Referee: M Fritz

Freiburg

T S U T T

3–1

Full-time

Union Berlin

T S T S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Freiburg Union Berlin

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,7

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

17%

67%

Both score Ø 34%

17%

50%

Average goals

2,0

3,5

Scored

0,3

1,7

Conceded

1,7

1,8

Goal diff per game

-1,3

-0,2

This season — Bundesliga · 24/24 matches

Win Ø 38%

38%

Points per game

1,4

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 54%

54%

Both score Ø 54%

54%

Average goals

2,7

2,9

Scored

1,3

Conceded

1,4

1,6

Goal diff per game

-0,1

-0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

52% Possession 48%

9 Shots 14

4 Shots on target 4

4 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 1

7 Corners 2

4 Offside 0

5 Free kicks against 20

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Freiburg 9. · Union Berlin 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	24	16	4	4	+45	52
2	RB Leipzig	24	14	7	3	+36	49
3	Dortmund	24	14	6	4	+34	48
4	M'gladbach	23	14	4	5	+19	46
5	Leverkusen	24	13	5	6	+11	44
6	Schalke 04	24	9	9	6	-3	36
7	Wolfsburg	24	9	8	7	+4	35
8	Hoffenheim	24	10	4	10	-8	34
9	Freiburg	24	9	6	9	-3	33
10	FC Koln	24	10	2	12	-5	32
11	Union Berlin	24	9	3	12	-7	30
12	Ein Frankfurt	23	8	4	11	+1	28
13	Augsburg	24	7	6	11	-14	27
14	Hertha	24	7	6	11	-16	27
15	Mainz	24	8	1	15	-19	25
16	Fortuna Dusseldorf	24	5	6	13	-23	21
17	Werder Bremen	23	4	5	14	-28	17
18	Paderborn	25	4	4	17	-24	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Dortmund	12	9	3	0	+31	30
2	Bayern Munich	12	8	2	2	+25	26
3	M'gladbach	11	8	2	1	+14	26
4	RB Leipzig	12	7	4	1	+19	25
5	Leverkusen	12	6	4	2	+8	22
6	Ein Frankfurt	12	6	3	3	+11	21
7	Schalke 04	12	5	5	2	+0	20
8	FC Koln	12	6	1	5	+4	19
9	Union Berlin	12	6	1	5	+2	19
10	Augsburg	12	5	3	4	+3	18
11	Wolfsburg	12	4	5	3	+3	17
12	Freiburg	11	5	2	4	+0	17
13	Hoffenheim	13	5	1	7	-12	16
14	Mainz	12	4	1	7	-6	13
15	Fortuna Dusseldorf	12	3	3	6	-10	12
16	Hertha	12	3	2	7	-14	11
17	Paderborn	13	2	1	10	-14	7
18	Werder Bremen	11	1	2	8	-18	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	12	8	2	2	+20	26
2	RB Leipzig	12	7	3	2	+17	24
3	Leverkusen	12	7	1	4	+3	22
4	M'gladbach	12	6	2	4	+5	20
5	Hoffenheim	11	5	3	3	+4	18
6	Dortmund	12	5	3	4	+3	18
7	Wolfsburg	12	5	3	4	+1	18
8	Hertha	12	4	4	4	-2	16
9	Freiburg	13	4	4	5	-3	16
10	Schalke 04	12	4	4	4	-3	16
11	FC Koln	12	4	1	7	-9	13
12	Werder Bremen	12	3	3	6	-10	12
13	Mainz	12	4	0	8	-13	12
14	Union Berlin	12	3	2	7	-9	11
15	Paderborn	12	2	3	7	-10	9
16	Fortuna Dusseldorf	12	2	3	7	-13	9
17	Augsburg	12	2	3	7	-17	9
18	Ein Frankfurt	11	2	1	8	-10	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.