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Premier League

Referee: Robert Madley

Arsenal

U S T U S

2–1

Full-time

Southampton

S S U T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Arsenal Southampton

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 67%

50%

83%

Average goals

3,3

Scored

2,2

2,0

Conceded

1,2

1,3

Goal diff per game

+1,0

+0,7

This season — Premier League · 3/3 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

1,3

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

3,7

2,0

Scored

2,0

0,7

Conceded

1,7

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-0,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

56% Possession 44%

17 Shots 11

2 Shots on target 5

8 Blocked shots 2

5 Goalkeeper saves 0

6 Corners 1

0 Offside 2

10 Free kicks against 8

2 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Arsenal 8. · Southampton 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	4	4	0	0	+7	12
2	Chelsea	3	3	0	0	+5	9
3	Man United	4	3	0	1	+4	9
4	Everton	3	2	1	0	+2	7
5	Hull	3	2	0	1	+2	6
6	Tottenham	3	1	2	0	+1	5
7	Middlesbrough	3	1	2	0	+1	5
8	Arsenal	3	1	1	1	+1	4
9	Leicester	3	1	1	1	+0	4
10	West Brom	3	1	1	1	+0	4
11	Liverpool	3	1	1	1	-1	4
12	West Ham	3	1	0	2	-2	3
13	Burnley	3	1	0	2	-2	3
14	Swansea	3	1	0	2	-2	3
15	Southampton	3	0	2	1	-2	2
16	Sunderland	3	0	1	2	-2	1
17	Crystal Palace	3	0	1	2	-2	1
18	Watford	3	0	1	2	-3	1
19	Bournemouth	3	0	1	2	-3	1
20	Stoke	3	0	1	2	-4	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Chelsea	2	2	0	0	+4	6
2	Man City	2	2	0	0	+3	6
3	Everton	2	1	1	0	+1	4
4	Tottenham	2	1	1	0	+1	4
5	Leicester	2	1	1	0	+1	4
6	Man United	2	1	0	1	+1	3
7	Burnley	2	1	0	1	+1	3
8	West Ham	1	1	0	0	+1	3
9	Hull	2	1	0	1	+0	3
10	Southampton	2	0	2	0	+0	2
11	Middlesbrough	1	0	1	0	+0	1
12	Crystal Palace	2	0	1	1	-1	1
13	West Brom	2	0	1	1	-1	1
14	Arsenal	1	0	0	1	-1	0
15	Sunderland	1	0	0	1	-1	0
16	Bournemouth	1	0	0	1	-2	0
17	Swansea	1	0	0	1	-2	0
18	Watford	2	0	0	2	-3	0
19	Stoke	1	0	0	1	-3	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	2	2	0	0	+4	6
2	Man United	2	2	0	0	+3	6
3	Arsenal	2	1	1	0	+2	4
4	Middlesbrough	2	1	1	0	+1	4
5	Liverpool	3	1	1	1	-1	4
6	Hull	1	1	0	0	+2	3
7	Chelsea	1	1	0	0	+1	3
8	Everton	1	1	0	0	+1	3
9	West Brom	1	1	0	0	+1	3
10	Swansea	2	1	0	1	+0	3
11	Watford	1	0	1	0	+0	1
12	Tottenham	1	0	1	0	+0	1
13	Sunderland	2	0	1	1	-1	1
14	Bournemouth	2	0	1	1	-1	1
15	Stoke	2	0	1	1	-1	1
16	Leicester	1	0	0	1	-1	0
17	Crystal Palace	1	0	0	1	-1	0
18	Southampton	1	0	0	1	-2	0
19	West Ham	2	0	0	2	-3	0
20	Burnley	1	0	0	1	-3	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.