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Eredivisie

Referee: Jeroen Manschot

Excelsior

S S S T T

3–1

Full-time

Heracles

S U S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Excelsior Heracles

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,7

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

67%

17%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

3,2

2,2

Scored

1,7

1,3

Conceded

1,5

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+0,5

This season — Eredivisie · 4/4 matches

Win Ø 38%

50%

25%

Points per game

1,5

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

75%

25%

Both score Ø 75%

75%

Average goals

3,3

2,3

Scored

1,5

1,3

Conceded

1,8

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–0

34% Possession 66%

8 Shots 8

5 Shots on target 6

0 Blocked shots 1

5 Goalkeeper saves 2

6 Corners 9

1 Offside 2

16 Free kicks against 17

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Excelsior 9. · Heracles 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	5	4	1	0	+10	13
2	Feyenoord	4	4	0	0	+11	12
3	Den Haag	4	3	1	0	+5	10
4	Ajax	4	2	1	1	+4	7
5	Vitesse	4	2	1	1	+3	7
6	AZ Alkmaar	4	2	1	1	+3	7
7	Twente	4	2	0	2	+0	6
8	Sparta Rotterdam	4	2	0	2	+0	6
9	Excelsior	4	2	0	2	-1	6
10	Heracles	4	1	2	1	+1	5
11	Nijmegen	5	1	2	2	-5	5
12	Heerenveen	3	1	1	1	+0	4
13	Willem II	5	1	1	3	-6	4
14	Roda	4	0	3	1	-1	3
15	Utrecht	3	0	2	1	-1	2
16	Zwolle	5	0	2	3	-8	2
17	Go Ahead Eagles	4	0	1	3	-7	1
18	Groningen	4	0	1	3	-8	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	AZ Alkmaar	3	2	1	0	+4	7
2	Feyenoord	2	2	0	0	+5	6
3	Den Haag	2	1	1	0	+3	4
4	PSV Eindhoven	2	1	1	0	+1	4
5	Nijmegen	3	1	1	1	-3	4
6	Twente	2	1	0	1	+1	3
7	Heracles	2	1	0	1	+1	3
8	Excelsior	2	1	0	1	+1	3
9	Heerenveen	1	1	0	0	+1	3
10	Sparta Rotterdam	2	1	0	1	-1	3
11	Ajax	2	0	1	1	-1	1
12	Vitesse	2	0	1	1	-1	1
13	Roda	2	0	1	1	-1	1
14	Go Ahead Eagles	2	0	1	1	-3	1
15	Willem II	2	0	1	1	-3	1
16	Zwolle	3	0	1	2	-7	1
17	Utrecht	1	0	0	1	-1	0
18	Groningen	2	0	0	2	-6	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	3	3	0	0	+9	9
2	Feyenoord	2	2	0	0	+6	6
3	Ajax	2	2	0	0	+5	6
4	Vitesse	2	2	0	0	+4	6
5	Den Haag	2	2	0	0	+2	6
6	Sparta Rotterdam	2	1	0	1	+1	3
7	Twente	2	1	0	1	-1	3
8	Excelsior	2	1	0	1	-2	3
9	Willem II	3	1	0	2	-3	3
10	Utrecht	2	0	2	0	+0	2
11	Roda	2	0	2	0	+0	2
12	Heracles	2	0	2	0	+0	2
13	Heerenveen	2	0	1	1	-1	1
14	Zwolle	2	0	1	1	-1	1
15	Nijmegen	2	0	1	1	-2	1
16	Groningen	2	0	1	1	-2	1
17	AZ Alkmaar	1	0	0	1	-1	0
18	Go Ahead Eagles	2	0	0	2	-4	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.