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Premier League

Referee: Craig Pawson

Liverpool

U U S T U

4–1

Full-time

Leicester

S U T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Liverpool Leicester

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

17%

50%

Both score Ø 75%

67%

83%

Average goals

2,8

2,3

Scored

1,5

1,3

Conceded

1,3

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+0,3

This season — Premier League · 3/3 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

3,7

2,0

Scored

1,7

1,0

Conceded

2,0

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

62% Possession 38%

17 Shots 12

11 Shots on target 3

4 Blocked shots 5

2 Goalkeeper saves 7

1 Corners 7

3 Offside 1

4 Free kicks against 8

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Liverpool 11. · Leicester 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	4	4	0	0	+7	12
2	Chelsea	3	3	0	0	+5	9
3	Man United	4	3	0	1	+4	9
4	Tottenham	4	2	2	0	+5	8
5	Arsenal	4	2	1	1	+2	7
6	Hull	4	2	1	1	+2	7
7	Everton	3	2	1	0	+2	7
8	Middlesbrough	4	1	2	1	+0	5
9	Leicester	3	1	1	1	+0	4
10	Watford	4	1	1	2	-1	4
11	Liverpool	3	1	1	1	-1	4
12	Crystal Palace	4	1	1	2	-1	4
13	West Brom	4	1	1	2	-1	4
14	Bournemouth	4	1	1	2	-2	4
15	Burnley	4	1	1	2	-2	4
16	Swansea	3	1	0	2	-2	3
17	West Ham	4	1	0	3	-4	3
18	Southampton	4	0	2	2	-3	2
19	Sunderland	3	0	1	2	-2	1
20	Stoke	4	0	1	3	-8	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Chelsea	2	2	0	0	+4	6
2	Man City	2	2	0	0	+3	6
3	Burnley	3	1	1	1	+1	4
4	Everton	2	1	1	0	+1	4
5	Tottenham	2	1	1	0	+1	4
6	Leicester	2	1	1	0	+1	4
7	Man United	2	1	0	1	+1	3
8	Arsenal	2	1	0	1	+0	3
9	Hull	2	1	0	1	+0	3
10	West Ham	2	1	0	1	-1	3
11	Bournemouth	2	1	0	1	-1	3
12	Southampton	2	0	2	0	+0	2
13	Middlesbrough	2	0	1	1	-1	1
14	Crystal Palace	2	0	1	1	-1	1
15	West Brom	2	0	1	1	-1	1
16	Sunderland	1	0	0	1	-1	0
17	Swansea	1	0	0	1	-2	0
18	Watford	2	0	0	2	-3	0
19	Stoke	2	0	0	2	-7	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	2	2	0	0	+4	6
2	Man United	2	2	0	0	+3	6
3	Tottenham	2	1	1	0	+4	4
4	Watford	2	1	1	0	+2	4
5	Hull	2	1	1	0	+2	4
6	Arsenal	2	1	1	0	+2	4
7	Middlesbrough	2	1	1	0	+1	4
8	Liverpool	3	1	1	1	-1	4
9	Chelsea	1	1	0	0	+1	3
10	Everton	1	1	0	0	+1	3
11	Swansea	2	1	0	1	+0	3
12	Crystal Palace	2	1	0	1	+0	3
13	West Brom	2	1	0	1	+0	3
14	Sunderland	2	0	1	1	-1	1
15	Bournemouth	2	0	1	1	-1	1
16	Stoke	2	0	1	1	-1	1
17	Leicester	1	0	0	1	-1	0
18	West Ham	2	0	0	2	-3	0
19	Southampton	2	0	0	2	-3	0
20	Burnley	1	0	0	1	-3	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.