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Premier League
Referee: Neil Swarbrick
Middlesbrough
U U U S U
1–2
Full-time

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Middlesbrough Crystal Palace
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 17%
17%
17%
Points per game
1,3
0,7
Over 2.5 Ø 33%
33%
33%
Both score Ø 59%
67%
50%
Average goals
1,8
2,2
Scored
1,0
0,7
Conceded
0,8
1,5
Goal diff per game
+0,2
-0,8
This season — Premier League · 3/3 matches
Win Ø 17%
33%
0%
Points per game
1,7
0,3
Over 2.5 Ø 17%
33%
0%
Both score Ø 50%
67%
33%
Average goals
1,7
1,3
Scored
1,0
0,3
Conceded
0,7
1,0
Goal diff per game
+0,3
-0,7
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

57% Possession 43%
12 Shots 12
4 Shots on target 4
3 Blocked shots 4
2 Goalkeeper saves 3
6 Corners 6
3 Offside 1
5 Free kicks against 9
1 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Middlesbrough 7. · Crystal Palace 17.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Man City 4 4 0 0 +7 12
2 Chelsea 3 3 0 0 +5 9
3 Man United 4 3 0 1 +4 9
4 Everton 3 2 1 0 +2 7
5 Hull 3 2 0 1 +2 6
6 Tottenham 3 1 2 0 +1 5
7 Middlesbrough 3 1 2 0 +1 5
8 Arsenal 3 1 1 1 +1 4
9 Leicester 3 1 1 1 +0 4
10 West Brom 3 1 1 1 +0 4
11 Liverpool 3 1 1 1 -1 4
12 West Ham 3 1 0 2 -2 3
13 Burnley 3 1 0 2 -2 3
14 Swansea 3 1 0 2 -2 3
15 Southampton 3 0 2 1 -2 2
16 Sunderland 3 0 1 2 -2 1
17 Crystal Palace 3 0 1 2 -2 1
18 Watford 3 0 1 2 -3 1
19 Bournemouth 3 0 1 2 -3 1
20 Stoke 3 0 1 2 -4 1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Middlesbrough Crystal Palace
16′
C. Benteke 0–1
W. Zaha
1–1 Daniel Ayala
S. Downing
38′
Half-time 1–2
47′
W. Zaha 1–2
G. Ramírez 🔁
↦ V. Fischer
57′
M. de Roon 🔁
↦ A. Clayton
57′
Gastón Ramírez 🟨
60′
77′
🔁 Chung-Yong Lee
↦ A. Townsend
Adama Traoré 🔁
↦ C. Stuani
81′
82′
🟨 Joel Ward
84′
🔁 M. Flamini
↦ J. Ledley
84′
🔁 J. Benteke
↦ C. Benteke
90′
🟨 Wilfried Zaha
Full-time 1–2

Line-ups

Middlesbrough

4-2-3-1
26 Víctor Valdés G
17 Barragán D
3 G. Friend D
4 Daniel Ayala D
6 B. Gibson D
19 S. Downing M
8 A. Clayton M
34 A. Forshaw M
10 Álvaro Negredo F
18 C. Stuani M
11 V. Fischer M
Bench (7)
21 G. Ramírez
14 M. de Roon
37 Adama Traoré
9 J. Rhodes
24 Nsue
25 C. Chambers
12 B. Guzan

Coach: Karanka

Crystal Palace

4-2-3-1
30 S. Mandanda G
27 D. Delaney D
6 S. Dann D
34 M. Kelly D
2 J. Ward D
16 J. Ledley M
42 J. Puncheon M
18 J. McArthur M
10 A. Townsend M
11 W. Zaha M
17 C. Benteke F
Bench (7)
14 Chung-Yong Lee
4 M. Flamini
15 J. Benteke
13 W. Hennessey
5 J. Tomkins
19 Z. Fryers
35 L. Dreher

Coach: A. Pardew

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

Neil Swarbrick · 72 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,2 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
13,9 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,07 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.