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Premier League

Referee: Anthony Taylor

Man City

S S U S T

2–2

Full-time

Arsenal

U U S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Man City Arsenal

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

67%

50%

Points per game

2,2

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

83%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

3,7

2,5

Scored

2,7

1,8

Conceded

1,0

0,7

Goal diff per game

+1,7

+1,2

This season — Premier League · 36/36 matches

Win Ø 53%

53%

Points per game

1,8

1,9

Over 2.5 Ø 57%

67%

47%

Both score Ø 45%

47%

42%

Average goals

2,9

2,6

Scored

1,9

1,6

Conceded

1,1

0,9

Goal diff per game

+0,8

+0,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

57% Possession 43%

14 Shots 5

3 Shots on target 2

2 Blocked shots 1

0 Goalkeeper saves 1

7 Corners 2

3 Offside 3

0 Free kicks against 0

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Man City 4. · Arsenal 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leicester	37	23	11	3	+32	80
2	Tottenham	37	19	13	5	+38	70
3	Arsenal	36	19	10	7	+25	67
4	Man City	36	19	7	10	+30	64
5	Man United	36	18	9	9	+13	63
6	Southampton	37	17	9	11	+15	60
7	West Ham	36	15	14	7	+14	59
8	Liverpool	35	15	10	10	+11	55
9	Chelsea	36	12	12	12	+6	48
10	Stoke	37	13	9	15	-15	48
11	Swansea	37	12	10	15	-10	46
12	Everton	36	10	14	12	+4	44
13	Watford	35	12	8	15	-6	44
14	Crystal Palace	37	11	9	17	-9	42
15	West Brom	37	10	12	15	-14	42
16	Bournemouth	37	11	9	17	-20	42
17	Sunderland	36	8	11	17	-17	35
18	Newcastle	37	8	10	19	-25	34
19	Norwich	36	8	7	21	-27	31
20	Aston Villa	37	3	8	26	-45	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leicester	19	12	6	1	+17	42
2	Man United	18	11	5	2	+16	38
3	Man City	18	12	1	5	+26	37
4	Arsenal	18	11	4	3	+16	37
5	Tottenham	19	10	6	3	+20	36
6	Southampton	18	10	3	5	+14	33
7	West Ham	18	8	7	3	+7	31
8	Swansea	18	8	5	5	+0	29
9	Liverpool	17	7	7	3	+9	28
10	Newcastle	18	6	7	5	+4	25
11	Stoke	18	7	4	7	-3	25
12	Chelsea	18	5	8	5	+2	23
13	Watford	18	6	5	7	+1	23
14	West Brom	18	6	4	8	-6	22
15	Sunderland	18	5	6	7	+0	21
16	Crystal Palace	19	6	3	10	-4	21
17	Everton	18	5	5	8	+2	20
18	Norwich	18	5	5	8	-6	20
19	Bournemouth	19	5	5	9	-11	20
20	Aston Villa	19	2	5	12	-21	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leicester	18	11	5	2	+15	38
2	Tottenham	18	9	7	2	+18	34
3	Arsenal	18	8	6	4	+9	30
4	West Ham	18	7	7	4	+7	28
5	Man City	18	7	6	5	+4	27
6	Liverpool	18	8	3	7	+2	27
7	Southampton	19	7	6	6	+1	27
8	Chelsea	18	7	4	7	+4	25
9	Man United	18	7	4	7	-3	25
10	Everton	18	5	9	4	+2	24
11	Stoke	19	6	5	8	-12	23
12	Bournemouth	18	6	4	8	-9	22
13	Crystal Palace	18	5	6	7	-5	21
14	Watford	17	6	3	8	-7	21
15	West Brom	19	4	8	7	-8	20
16	Swansea	19	4	5	10	-10	17
17	Sunderland	18	3	5	10	-17	14
18	Norwich	18	3	2	13	-21	11
19	Newcastle	19	2	3	14	-29	9
20	Aston Villa	18	1	3	14	-24	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.