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Championship

Referee: James Linington

Derby

U T S U T

0–2

Full-time

Newcastle

T T S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Derby Newcastle

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

33%

67%

Points per game

1,3

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

50%

Both score Ø 25%

50%

Average goals

1,0

3,0

Scored

0,5

2,2

Conceded

0,5

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+1,3

This season — Championship · 5/5 matches

Win Ø 40%

20%

60%

Points per game

1,0

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 20%

40%

Both score Ø 20%

40%

Average goals

0,8

2,4

Scored

0,2

1,6

Conceded

0,6

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,4

+0,8

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

52% Possession 48%

10 Shots 11

2 Shots on target 3

4 Blocked shots 6

1 Goalkeeper saves 2

2 Corners 5

3 Offside 0

8 Free kicks against 13

0 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Derby 18. · Newcastle 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Huddersfield	6	5	1	0	+5	16
2	Barnsley	6	4	0	2	+5	12
3	Birmingham	6	3	2	1	+3	11
4	Norwich	6	3	2	1	+2	11
5	Fulham	6	3	2	1	+2	11
6	QPR	6	3	1	2	+3	10
7	Brentford	6	3	1	2	+3	10
8	Bristol City	6	3	1	2	+2	10
9	Reading	6	3	1	2	-2	10
10	Newcastle	5	3	0	2	+4	9
11	Wolves	6	2	3	1	+3	9
12	Nott'm Forest	5	3	0	2	+0	9
13	Brighton	6	2	2	2	+2	8
14	Burton Albion	6	2	2	2	+1	8
15	Ipswich	6	2	2	2	+0	8
16	Sheffield Weds	6	2	2	2	-2	8
17	Aston Villa	5	1	2	2	+0	5
18	Derby	5	1	2	2	-2	5
19	Cardiff	6	1	2	3	-3	5
20	Rotherham	6	1	2	3	-9	5
21	Wigan	6	1	1	4	-1	4
22	Leeds	6	1	1	4	-5	4
23	Preston	6	1	0	5	-3	3
24	Blackburn	6	0	2	4	-8	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Barnsley	3	3	0	0	+7	9
2	Nott'm Forest	3	3	0	0	+4	9
3	Huddersfield	3	3	0	0	+3	9
4	Ipswich	3	2	1	0	+3	7
5	Brentford	3	2	1	0	+3	7
6	Reading	3	2	1	0	+2	7
7	Norwich	3	2	1	0	+2	7
8	Newcastle	3	2	0	1	+4	6
9	Brighton	3	2	0	1	+4	6
10	Bristol City	3	2	0	1	+2	6
11	Burton Albion	3	2	0	1	+2	6
12	Sheffield Weds	3	2	0	1	+0	6
13	Wolves	3	1	2	0	+2	5
14	Rotherham	3	1	2	0	+1	5
15	Aston Villa	2	1	1	0	+3	4
16	Wigan	3	1	1	1	+2	4
17	Birmingham	3	1	1	1	+1	4
18	QPR	3	1	1	1	+1	4
19	Fulham	3	1	1	1	+0	4
20	Cardiff	3	1	0	2	-2	3
21	Derby	2	0	2	0	+0	2
22	Leeds	3	0	1	2	-2	1
23	Blackburn	3	0	1	2	-4	1
24	Preston	3	0	0	3	-3	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Huddersfield	3	2	1	0	+2	7
2	Birmingham	3	2	1	0	+2	7
3	Fulham	3	2	1	0	+2	7
4	QPR	3	2	0	1	+2	6
5	Wolves	3	1	1	1	+1	4
6	Norwich	3	1	1	1	+0	4
7	Bristol City	3	1	1	1	+0	4
8	Brentford	3	1	0	2	+0	3
9	Preston	3	1	0	2	+0	3
10	Newcastle	2	1	0	1	+0	3
11	Barnsley	3	1	0	2	-2	3
12	Derby	3	1	0	2	-2	3
13	Leeds	3	1	0	2	-3	3
14	Reading	3	1	0	2	-4	3
15	Burton Albion	3	0	2	1	-1	2
16	Cardiff	3	0	2	1	-1	2
17	Sheffield Weds	3	0	2	1	-2	2
18	Brighton	3	0	2	1	-2	2
19	Ipswich	3	0	1	2	-3	1
20	Aston Villa	3	0	1	2	-3	1
21	Blackburn	3	0	1	2	-4	1
22	Wigan	3	0	0	3	-3	0
23	Nott'm Forest	2	0	0	2	-4	0
24	Rotherham	3	0	0	3	-10	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.