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Premier League

Referee: Mark Clattenburg

Arsenal

U S U S U

4–0

Full-time

Aston Villa

T T T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Arsenal Aston Villa

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

1,7

0,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,5

3,2

Scored

1,5

0,8

Conceded

1,0

2,3

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-1,5

This season — Premier League · 37/37 matches

Win Ø 30%

51%

Points per game

1,8

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 48%

49%

46%

Both score Ø 45%

43%

46%

Average goals

2,6

2,7

Scored

1,6

0,7

Conceded

1,0

1,9

Goal diff per game

+0,7

-1,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

59% Possession 41%

16 Shots 5

7 Shots on target 2

2 Blocked shots 3

2 Goalkeeper saves 4

5 Corners 4

12 Free kicks against 6

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Arsenal 3. · Aston Villa 20. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leicester	37	23	11	3	+32	80
2	Tottenham	37	19	13	5	+38	70
3	Arsenal	37	19	11	7	+25	68
4	Man City	37	19	8	10	+30	65
5	Man United	37	18	9	10	+12	63
6	West Ham	37	16	14	7	+15	62
7	Southampton	37	17	9	11	+15	60
8	Liverpool	37	16	11	10	+13	59
9	Chelsea	37	12	13	12	+6	49
10	Stoke	37	13	9	15	-15	48
11	Swansea	37	12	10	15	-10	46
12	Everton	37	10	14	13	+1	44
13	Watford	37	12	8	17	-10	44
14	Crystal Palace	37	11	9	17	-9	42
15	West Brom	37	10	12	15	-14	42
16	Bournemouth	37	11	9	17	-20	42
17	Sunderland	37	9	11	17	-14	38
18	Norwich	37	9	7	21	-25	34
19	Newcastle	37	8	10	19	-25	34
20	Aston Villa	37	3	8	26	-45	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leicester	19	12	6	1	+17	42
2	Man City	19	12	2	5	+26	38
3	Man United	18	11	5	2	+16	38
4	Arsenal	18	11	4	3	+16	37
5	Tottenham	19	10	6	3	+20	36
6	West Ham	19	9	7	3	+8	34
7	Southampton	18	10	3	5	+14	33
8	Liverpool	19	8	8	3	+11	32
9	Swansea	18	8	5	5	+0	29
10	Newcastle	18	6	7	5	+4	25
11	Stoke	18	7	4	7	-3	25
12	Sunderland	19	6	6	7	+3	24
13	Chelsea	18	5	8	5	+2	23
14	Watford	18	6	5	7	+1	23
15	Norwich	19	6	5	8	-4	23
16	West Brom	18	6	4	8	-6	22
17	Crystal Palace	19	6	3	10	-4	21
18	Everton	18	5	5	8	+2	20
19	Bournemouth	19	5	5	9	-11	20
20	Aston Villa	19	2	5	12	-21	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leicester	18	11	5	2	+15	38
2	Tottenham	18	9	7	2	+18	34
3	Arsenal	19	8	7	4	+9	31
4	West Ham	18	7	7	4	+7	28
5	Man City	18	7	6	5	+4	27
6	Liverpool	18	8	3	7	+2	27
7	Southampton	19	7	6	6	+1	27
8	Chelsea	19	7	5	7	+4	26
9	Man United	19	7	4	8	-4	25
10	Everton	19	5	9	5	-1	24
11	Stoke	19	6	5	8	-12	23
12	Bournemouth	18	6	4	8	-9	22
13	Crystal Palace	18	5	6	7	-5	21
14	Watford	19	6	3	10	-11	21
15	West Brom	19	4	8	7	-8	20
16	Swansea	19	4	5	10	-10	17
17	Sunderland	18	3	5	10	-17	14
18	Norwich	18	3	2	13	-21	11
19	Newcastle	19	2	3	14	-29	9
20	Aston Villa	18	1	3	14	-24	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.