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Premier League

Referee: Kevin Friend

Watford

T T U U T

1–3

Full-time

Arsenal

S U S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Watford Arsenal

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,8

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 58%

83%

33%

Average goals

3,7

2,7

Scored

1,5

1,7

Conceded

2,2

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+0,7

This season — Premier League · 2/2 matches

Win Ø 0%

Points per game

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 75%

100%

50%

Average goals

2,5

3,5

Scored

1,0

1,5

Conceded

1,5

2,0

Goal diff per game

-0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–3

45% Possession 55%

14 Shots 10

6 Shots on target 7

2 Blocked shots 1

4 Goalkeeper saves 6

3 Corners 2

1 Offside 2

18 Free kicks against 15

6 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Watford 14. · Arsenal 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	2	2	0	0	+4	6
2	Man United	2	2	0	0	+4	6
3	Hull	2	2	0	0	+3	6
4	Chelsea	2	2	0	0	+2	6
5	Tottenham	3	1	2	0	+1	5
6	Everton	2	1	1	0	+1	4
7	Middlesbrough	2	1	1	0	+1	4
8	Liverpool	3	1	1	1	-1	4
9	Burnley	2	1	0	1	+1	3
10	West Ham	2	1	0	1	+0	3
11	West Brom	2	1	0	1	+0	3
12	Swansea	2	1	0	1	-1	3
13	Arsenal	2	0	1	1	-1	1
14	Watford	2	0	1	1	-1	1
15	Leicester	2	0	1	1	-1	1
16	Southampton	2	0	1	1	-2	1
17	Stoke	2	0	1	1	-3	1
18	Sunderland	2	0	0	2	-2	0
19	Crystal Palace	2	0	0	2	-2	0
20	Bournemouth	2	0	0	2	-3	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Tottenham	2	1	1	0	+1	4
2	Man United	1	1	0	0	+2	3
3	Man City	1	1	0	0	+1	3
4	Burnley	2	1	0	1	+1	3
5	Chelsea	1	1	0	0	+1	3
6	Hull	1	1	0	0	+1	3
7	West Ham	1	1	0	0	+1	3
8	Southampton	1	0	1	0	+0	1
9	Everton	1	0	1	0	+0	1
10	Middlesbrough	1	0	1	0	+0	1
11	Leicester	1	0	1	0	+0	1
12	Arsenal	1	0	0	1	-1	0
13	Watford	1	0	0	1	-1	0
14	West Brom	1	0	0	1	-1	0
15	Sunderland	1	0	0	1	-1	0
16	Crystal Palace	1	0	0	1	-1	0
17	Bournemouth	1	0	0	1	-2	0
18	Swansea	1	0	0	1	-2	0
19	Stoke	1	0	0	1	-3	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	3	1	1	1	-1	4
2	Man City	1	1	0	0	+3	3
3	Man United	1	1	0	0	+2	3
4	Hull	1	1	0	0	+2	3
5	Chelsea	1	1	0	0	+1	3
6	Everton	1	1	0	0	+1	3
7	Middlesbrough	1	1	0	0	+1	3
8	Swansea	1	1	0	0	+1	3
9	West Brom	1	1	0	0	+1	3
10	Watford	1	0	1	0	+0	1
11	Tottenham	1	0	1	0	+0	1
12	Stoke	1	0	1	0	+0	1
13	Arsenal	1	0	1	0	+0	1
14	Sunderland	1	0	0	1	-1	0
15	West Ham	1	0	0	1	-1	0
16	Leicester	1	0	0	1	-1	0
17	Bournemouth	1	0	0	1	-1	0
18	Crystal Palace	1	0	0	1	-1	0
19	Southampton	1	0	0	1	-2	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.