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La Liga

Referee: M Sesma

Alaves

S U S S T

0–1

Full-time

Valencia

U T T T T

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Alaves Valencia

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,7

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

3,2

2,5

Scored

2,0

0,7

Conceded

1,2

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,8

-1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 5/5 matches

Win Ø 30%

60%

Points per game

2,0

0,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

60%

40%

Both score Ø 40%

60%

20%

Average goals

3,2

2,2

Scored

2,2

0,2

Conceded

1,0

2,0

Goal diff per game

+1,2

-1,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,05 xG 0,65

43% Possession 57%

15 Shots 10

3 Shots on target 3

4 Blocked shots 5

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

2 Corners 5

3 Offside 4

7 Free kicks against 14

1 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Alaves 4. · Valencia 20. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	5	5	0	0	+17	+9.6	15
2	Real Madrid	5	4	0	1	+10	+7.5	12
3	Betis	5	4	0	1	+1	+0.3	12
4	Alaves	5	3	1	1	+6	+2.7	10
5	Ath Madrid	5	3	1	1	+4	-0.2	10
6	Sevilla	5	3	1	1	+2	-0.6	10
7	La Coruna	5	2	3	0	+3	-1.6	9
8	Espanol	6	2	1	3	+2	-1.5	7
9	Ath Bilbao	5	2	1	2	+1	-1.1	7
10	Santander	5	2	1	2	+0	+2.0	7
11	Osasuna	5	2	1	2	-3	+2.9	7
12	Vallecano	6	2	1	3	-5	-5.0	7
13	Sociedad	6	2	1	3	-5	-3.2	7
14	Levante	5	1	2	2	-2	-0.0	5
15	Getafe	5	1	2	2	-3	-3.2	5
16	Celta	6	0	4	2	-3	-2.6	4
17	Malaga	5	0	3	2	-6	-3.3	3
18	Villarreal	5	0	2	3	-3	+0.6	2
19	Elche	5	0	2	3	-7	-3.5	2
20	Valencia	5	0	1	4	-9	+0.3	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	3	3	0	0	+10	+5.9	9
2	Alaves	3	3	0	0	+7	+1.1	9
3	Santander	3	2	1	0	+2	+1.9	7
4	Vallecano	3	2	1	0	+2	-1.6	7
5	Barcelona	2	2	0	0	+5	+5.7	6
6	Betis	2	2	0	0	+2	-0.1	6
7	Sevilla	3	2	0	1	+0	+0.3	6
8	Getafe	3	1	2	0	+1	-0.5	5
9	Espanol	3	1	1	1	+2	-0.4	4
10	Ath Madrid	2	1	1	0	+2	-2.0	4
11	La Coruna	2	1	1	0	+2	-0.9	4
12	Ath Bilbao	3	1	1	1	+1	+0.8	4
13	Osasuna	3	1	1	1	-1	+0.4	4
14	Sociedad	3	1	1	1	-2	-0.7	4
15	Levante	2	1	0	1	+1	+0.7	3
16	Malaga	2	0	2	0	+0	+0.8	2
17	Celta	3	0	1	2	-3	-3.0	1
18	Valencia	3	0	1	2	-6	+0.3	1
19	Villarreal	2	0	0	2	-2	-1.6	0
20	Elche	2	0	0	2	-6	-3.7	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	3	3	0	0	+12	+3.8	9
2	Ath Madrid	3	2	0	1	+2	+1.8	6
3	Betis	3	2	0	1	-1	+0.4	6
4	La Coruna	3	1	2	0	+1	-0.7	5
5	Sevilla	2	1	1	0	+2	-0.8	4
6	Espanol	3	1	0	2	+0	-1.1	3
7	Ath Bilbao	2	1	0	1	+0	-2.0	3
8	Real Madrid	2	1	0	1	+0	+1.7	3
9	Celta	3	0	3	0	+0	+0.5	3
10	Osasuna	2	1	0	1	-2	+2.5	3
11	Sociedad	3	1	0	2	-3	-2.4	3
12	Elche	3	0	2	1	-1	+0.2	2
13	Villarreal	3	0	2	1	-1	+2.2	2
14	Levante	3	0	2	1	-3	-0.7	2
15	Alaves	2	0	1	1	-1	+1.6	1
16	Malaga	3	0	1	2	-6	-4.1	1
17	Santander	2	0	0	2	-2	+0.1	0
18	Valencia	2	0	0	2	-3	-0.0	0
19	Getafe	2	0	0	2	-4	-2.7	0
20	Vallecano	3	0	0	3	-7	-3.5	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.