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Championship

Referee: Robert Madley

Middlesbrough

S U S T S

2–2

Full-time

Millwall

T T S T T

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Middlesbrough Millwall

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,2

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

3,5

3,2

Scored

2,0

1,2

Conceded

1,5

2,0

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

67%

50%

Points per game

2,2

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

67%

83%

Both score Ø 58%

83%

33%

Average goals

3,3

3,7

Scored

2,0

1,8

Conceded

1,3

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

1,52 xG 1,69

80% Possession 20%

22 Shots 11

7 Shots on target 4

10 Blocked shots 1

2 Goalkeeper saves 5

14 Corners 1

4 Offside 3

3 Free kicks against 12

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Middlesbrough 5. · Millwall 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	West Ham	7	4	2	1	+11	+1.2	14
2	Southampton	7	4	2	1	+10	+3.3	14
3	Swansea	7	4	2	1	+6	+1.2	14
4	West Brom	7	4	2	1	+3	-2.8	14
5	Middlesbrough	6	4	1	1	+4	+3.4	13
6	QPR	7	3	3	1	+3	+2.6	12
7	Charlton	7	3	3	1	-1	-5.0	12
8	Wolves	6	3	2	1	+4	+4.5	11
9	Birmingham	7	2	4	1	+1	+1.3	10
10	Stoke	7	3	1	3	+0	-3.8	10
11	Bristol City	6	3	1	2	-1	-4.2	10
12	Norwich	7	3	0	4	+0	-0.3	9
13	Millwall	6	3	0	3	+0	+2.3	9
14	Sheffield United	7	2	3	2	-1	-1.7	9
15	Blackburn	7	2	2	3	+0	-2.1	8
16	Lincoln	6	2	2	2	-1	+0.4	8
17	Watford	7	2	2	3	-2	-2.6	8
18	Portsmouth	6	2	1	3	-1	-0.2	7
19	Wrexham	7	1	4	2	-4	+1.4	7
20	Bolton	7	2	1	4	-5	-1.7	7
21	Cardiff	7	0	4	3	-4	+3.0	4
22	Derby	7	1	1	5	-7	-1.7	4
23	Preston	7	1	0	6	-7	+2.0	3
24	Burnley	7	0	3	4	-8	-0.2	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Southampton	4	4	0	0	+11	+3.9	12
2	West Ham	4	3	0	1	+10	+2.2	9
3	Middlesbrough	3	3	0	0	+4	+2.9	9
4	Swansea	4	2	2	0	+4	-0.9	8
5	West Brom	4	2	2	0	+3	+0.4	8
6	Charlton	4	2	2	0	+2	-1.2	8
7	Watford	4	2	1	1	+1	-1.4	7
8	Millwall	3	2	0	1	+4	+1.7	6
9	Stoke	3	2	0	1	+4	+1.6	6
10	Norwich	3	2	0	1	+3	+1.4	6
11	Blackburn	4	2	0	2	+1	+0.2	6
12	Bolton	4	2	0	2	+0	-0.1	6
13	Wolves	2	1	1	0	+3	+3.1	4
14	QPR	3	1	1	1	+0	+1.6	4
15	Sheffield United	4	1	1	2	-2	-0.5	4
16	Birmingham	3	0	3	0	+0	+0.0	3
17	Cardiff	3	0	3	0	+0	+2.6	3
18	Bristol City	2	1	0	1	-1	-3.6	3
19	Portsmouth	3	1	0	2	-2	+0.1	3
20	Preston	4	1	0	3	-4	+0.2	3
21	Burnley	3	0	2	1	-1	+1.0	2
22	Wrexham	3	0	2	1	-1	+0.9	2
23	Lincoln	3	0	2	1	-2	+2.6	2
24	Derby	4	0	1	3	-5	-1.8	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	QPR	4	2	2	0	+3	+0.9	8
2	Wolves	4	2	1	1	+1	+1.4	7
3	Birmingham	4	2	1	1	+1	+1.3	7
4	Bristol City	4	2	1	1	+0	-0.6	7
5	Swansea	3	2	0	1	+2	+2.0	6
6	Lincoln	3	2	0	1	+1	-2.2	6
7	West Brom	3	2	0	1	+0	-3.2	6
8	West Ham	3	1	2	0	+1	-1.0	5
9	Sheffield United	3	1	2	0	+1	-1.2	5
10	Wrexham	4	1	2	1	-3	+0.5	5
11	Portsmouth	3	1	1	1	+1	-0.3	4
12	Middlesbrough	3	1	1	1	+0	+0.5	4
13	Charlton	3	1	1	1	-3	-3.8	4
14	Stoke	4	1	1	2	-4	-5.4	4
15	Derby	3	1	0	2	-2	+0.0	3
16	Norwich	4	1	0	3	-3	-1.7	3
17	Millwall	3	1	0	2	-4	+0.6	3
18	Southampton	3	0	2	1	-1	-0.6	2
19	Blackburn	3	0	2	1	-1	-2.3	2
20	Watford	3	0	1	2	-3	-1.3	1
21	Cardiff	4	0	1	3	-4	+0.4	1
22	Bolton	3	0	1	2	-5	-1.6	1
23	Burnley	4	0	1	3	-7	-1.2	1
24	Preston	3	0	0	3	-3	+1.8	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.