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Primeira Liga

Referee: Carlos Macedo

Arouca

S T U S U

1–0

Full-time

Moreirense

T U U T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Arouca Moreirense

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

1,3

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 58%

83%

33%

Average goals

3,0

1,8

Scored

1,5

0,5

Conceded

1,5

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 18/18 matches

Win Ø 28%

22%

33%

Points per game

0,9

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 53%

50%

56%

Both score Ø 56%

50%

61%

Average goals

2,5

2,6

Scored

0,8

1,2

Conceded

1,7

1,4

Goal diff per game

-0,8

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,59 xG 0,56

50% Possession 50%

16 Shots 7

5 Shots on target 1

7 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 3

10 Corners 2

3 Offside 4

18 Free kicks against 11

3 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Arouca 15. · Moreirense 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	18	14	2	2	+37	+32.9	44
2	Benfica	18	13	2	3	+31	+22.6	41
3	Porto	18	13	1	4	+27	+17.9	40
4	Sp Braga	18	10	4	4	+12	+12.6	34
5	Santa Clara	18	10	1	7	+1	+9.9	31
6	Casa Pia	18	7	6	5	+0	-2.9	27
7	Guimaraes	18	6	8	4	+4	+6.0	26
8	Moreirense	18	6	5	7	-3	+0.7	23
9	Gil Vicente	18	5	7	6	-5	-5.8	22
10	Estoril	18	5	6	7	-9	-15.5	21
11	Famalicao	18	4	8	6	-4	-8.6	20
12	Rio Ave	18	5	5	8	-13	-15.0	20
13	Nacional	18	5	4	9	-8	-2.5	19
14	Estrela	18	4	4	10	-14	-11.0	16
15	Arouca	18	4	4	10	-15	-10.7	16
16	Farense	18	3	6	9	-12	-15.5	15
17	AVS	18	2	9	7	-13	-9.0	15
18	Boavista	18	2	6	10	-16	-6.0	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Benfica	10	9	0	1	+26	+17.4	27
2	Porto	9	9	0	0	+23	+18.7	27
3	Sp Lisbon	8	7	0	1	+14	+13.0	21
4	Santa Clara	10	6	1	3	+1	+9.5	19
5	Gil Vicente	9	4	4	1	+7	+1.4	16
6	Guimaraes	9	4	4	1	+4	+3.9	16
7	Moreirense	9	4	4	1	+2	-1.5	16
8	Rio Ave	9	4	4	1	+1	-1.7	16
9	Nacional	9	5	1	3	-1	-1.3	16
10	Estrela	10	4	2	4	-2	-4.4	14
11	Casa Pia	9	3	4	2	+2	+1.2	13
12	Sp Braga	9	3	3	3	+3	+9.5	12
13	Estoril	9	3	3	3	-3	-6.7	12
14	Famalicao	9	2	4	3	-2	-0.7	10
15	AVS	9	2	4	3	-5	-6.5	10
16	Arouca	8	2	2	4	-5	-6.8	8
17	Farense	8	2	1	5	-7	-5.2	7
18	Boavista	9	0	3	6	-11	-2.4	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	10	7	2	1	+23	+19.9	23
2	Sp Braga	9	7	1	1	+9	+3.1	22
3	Benfica	8	4	2	2	+5	+5.2	14
4	Casa Pia	9	4	2	3	-2	-4.1	14
5	Porto	9	4	1	4	+4	-0.8	13
6	Santa Clara	8	4	0	4	+0	+0.4	12
7	Guimaraes	9	2	4	3	+0	+2.2	10
8	Famalicao	9	2	4	3	-2	-7.9	10
9	Boavista	9	2	3	4	-5	-3.6	9
10	Estoril	9	2	3	4	-6	-8.8	9
11	Farense	10	1	5	4	-5	-10.3	8
12	Arouca	10	2	2	6	-10	-3.9	8
13	Moreirense	9	2	1	6	-5	+2.2	7
14	Gil Vicente	9	1	3	5	-12	-7.2	6
15	AVS	9	0	5	4	-8	-2.4	5
16	Rio Ave	9	1	1	7	-14	-13.3	4
17	Nacional	9	0	3	6	-7	-1.2	3
18	Estrela	8	0	2	6	-12	-6.6	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.