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Primeira Liga

Referee: Artur Soares Dias

Moreirense

S T S U T

1–0

Full-time

Arouca

S T S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Moreirense Arouca

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

33%

67%

Points per game

1,2

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

83%

Both score Ø 34%

67%

Average goals

1,0

3,8

Scored

0,3

2,2

Conceded

0,7

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 25/25 matches

Win Ø 42%

44%

40%

Points per game

1,6

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

36%

64%

Both score Ø 42%

32%

52%

Average goals

2,2

3,2

Scored

1,1

1,7

Conceded

1,1

1,4

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

0,84 xG 0,34

39% Possession 61%

12 Shots 9

3 Shots on target 1

3 Blocked shots 5

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

2 Corners 3

5 Offside 0

11 Free kicks against 9

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Moreirense 6. · Arouca 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	24	20	2	2	+45	+31.5	62
2	Benfica	25	19	4	2	+38	+28.9	61
3	Porto	26	18	4	4	+32	+24.8	58
4	Sp Braga	26	16	5	5	+21	+16.4	53
5	Guimaraes	25	14	5	6	+13	+6.8	47
6	Moreirense	25	11	6	8	+0	+0.3	39
7	Arouca	25	10	4	11	+7	-0.8	34
8	Gil Vicente	26	7	7	12	-4	-6.5	28
9	Famalicao	25	6	10	9	-6	-7.6	28
10	Boavista	25	7	7	11	-13	-10.8	28
11	Farense	26	7	6	13	-4	-9.7	27
12	Casa Pia	25	7	6	12	-15	-9.5	27
13	Estrela	26	6	8	12	-13	-8.6	26
14	Estoril	26	7	4	15	-7	-10.2	25
15	Rio Ave	26	4	13	9	-9	+1.0	25
16	Portimonense	26	6	5	15	-29	-18.4	23
17	Vizela	26	4	9	13	-26	-11.8	21
18	Chaves	25	4	7	14	-30	-15.8	19

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	12	12	0	0	+31	+20.2	36
2	Benfica	13	11	2	0	+30	+21.9	35
3	Porto	13	10	2	1	+22	+20.1	32
4	Guimaraes	13	9	1	3	+12	+10.5	28
5	Sp Braga	13	8	3	2	+15	+18.1	27
6	Gil Vicente	13	5	6	2	+9	-3.6	21
7	Estoril	13	6	1	6	+7	+1.3	19
8	Rio Ave	13	4	6	3	+1	+5.1	18
9	Moreirense	12	5	3	4	+0	+0.6	18
10	Arouca	13	5	2	6	+0	-1.6	17
11	Famalicao	12	4	5	3	-1	-1.1	17
12	Estrela	13	5	2	6	-2	-2.5	17
13	Farense	13	4	4	5	+2	+0.4	16
14	Boavista	13	4	4	5	-9	-3.8	16
15	Portimonense	13	3	4	6	-9	-6.6	13
16	Chaves	12	3	3	6	-10	-3.7	12
17	Casa Pia	12	2	4	6	-7	-1.9	10
18	Vizela	13	2	4	7	-11	-1.2	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	12	8	2	2	+14	+11.3	26
2	Porto	13	8	2	3	+10	+4.6	26
3	Benfica	12	8	2	2	+8	+7.0	26
4	Sp Braga	13	8	2	3	+6	-1.6	26
5	Moreirense	13	6	3	4	+0	-0.4	21
6	Guimaraes	12	5	4	3	+1	-3.7	19
7	Arouca	12	5	2	5	+7	+0.8	17
8	Casa Pia	13	5	2	6	-8	-7.7	17
9	Boavista	12	3	3	6	-4	-7.0	12
10	Famalicao	13	2	5	6	-5	-6.5	11
11	Farense	13	3	2	8	-6	-10.0	11
12	Vizela	13	2	5	6	-15	-10.6	11
13	Portimonense	13	3	1	9	-20	-11.8	10
14	Estrela	13	1	6	6	-11	-6.2	9
15	Rio Ave	13	0	7	6	-10	-4.1	7
16	Gil Vicente	13	2	1	10	-13	-2.9	7
17	Chaves	13	1	4	8	-20	-12.1	7
18	Estoril	13	1	3	9	-14	-11.4	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.