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Primeira Liga

Nacional

S U T U T

1–2

Full-time

Benfica

S T U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nacional Benfica

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

33%

67%

Points per game

1,3

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

83%

17%

Average goals

3,3

2,8

Scored

1,7

2,3

Conceded

1,7

0,5

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+1,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 11/11 matches

Win Ø 46%

27%

64%

Points per game

1,1

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 46%

27%

64%

Both score Ø 50%

55%

45%

Average goals

2,4

2,6

Scored

1,0

2,1

Conceded

1,4

0,5

Goal diff per game

-0,4

+1,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,50 xG 2,68

30% Possession 70%

6 Shots 31

2 Shots on target 8

1 Blocked shots 10

6 Goalkeeper saves 1

2 Corners 11

0 Offside 1

10 Free kicks against 8

4 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Nacional 11. · Benfica 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	11	10	1	0	+21	+14.8	31
2	Sp Lisbon	11	9	1	1	+21	+19.2	28
3	Benfica	11	7	4	0	+17	+13.2	25
4	Gil Vicente	11	7	2	2	+11	+4.1	23
5	Famalicao	12	5	5	2	+6	+5.5	20
6	Moreirense	12	6	1	5	+1	-6.8	19
7	Guimaraes	12	5	2	5	-3	-3.5	17
8	Sp Braga	11	4	4	3	+8	+6.0	16
9	Alverca	12	4	2	6	-5	-0.6	14
10	Estoril	11	3	4	4	+2	-0.9	13
11	Nacional	11	3	3	5	-4	-3.5	12
12	Rio Ave	11	2	6	3	-5	-9.3	12
13	Estrela	11	2	5	4	-1	+1.7	11
14	Santa Clara	11	3	2	6	-4	+1.9	11
15	Casa Pia	12	2	3	7	-13	-10.2	9
16	Arouca	11	2	3	6	-17	-14.2	9
17	Tondela	11	1	3	7	-14	-7.1	6
18	AVS	12	0	3	9	-21	-10.3	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	5	4	1	0	+9	+6.9	13
2	Moreirense	6	4	1	1	+5	-1.1	13
3	Benfica	6	3	3	0	+9	+9.5	12
4	Gil Vicente	5	4	0	1	+5	+3.3	12
5	Guimaraes	6	3	2	1	+3	+0.2	11
6	Sp Lisbon	5	3	1	1	+10	+8.8	10
7	Sp Braga	6	3	1	2	+6	+6.1	10
8	Famalicao	6	2	2	2	+3	+0.7	8
9	Estoril	6	2	2	2	+1	-0.4	8
10	Santa Clara	6	2	1	3	+0	+3.1	7
11	Alverca	6	2	1	3	-5	+1.8	7
12	Estrela	6	1	2	3	-1	+2.3	5
13	Rio Ave	5	1	2	2	-4	-3.8	5
14	Arouca	6	1	2	3	-6	-6.1	5
15	Nacional	5	1	0	4	-6	-1.0	3
16	Tondela	5	0	2	3	-5	-2.3	2
17	Casa Pia	6	0	2	4	-8	-6.7	2
18	AVS	6	0	2	4	-8	-3.9	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	6	6	0	0	+12	+7.9	18
2	Sp Lisbon	6	6	0	0	+11	+10.4	18
3	Benfica	5	4	1	0	+8	+3.7	13
4	Famalicao	6	3	3	0	+3	+4.8	12
5	Gil Vicente	6	3	2	1	+6	+0.8	11
6	Nacional	6	2	3	1	+2	-2.5	9
7	Alverca	6	2	1	3	+0	-2.4	7
8	Rio Ave	6	1	4	1	-1	-5.5	7
9	Casa Pia	6	2	1	3	-5	-3.5	7
10	Sp Braga	5	1	3	1	+2	-0.1	6
11	Estrela	5	1	3	1	+0	-0.5	6
12	Moreirense	6	2	0	4	-4	-5.6	6
13	Guimaraes	6	2	0	4	-6	-3.8	6
14	Estoril	5	1	2	2	+1	-0.5	5
15	Santa Clara	5	1	1	3	-4	-1.2	4
16	Tondela	6	1	1	4	-9	-4.8	4
17	Arouca	5	1	1	3	-11	-8.1	4
18	AVS	6	0	1	5	-13	-6.3	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.